551
FXUS63 KJKL 161950
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY
BEHIND OUTGOING MORNING RAINFALL. NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS FORECAST
IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGES.
- RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING, WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM TONIGHT.
- LINGERING MOISTURE FREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WHERE ROAD TREATMENTS HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGH TERRAIN COULD
BRING A RISK OF UP TO 1-2" IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS AND
20-40% CHANCES OF MODERATE WINTER STORM IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SNOW AND ANY RAIN IN THE FAR EAST ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AT MIDDAY. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 30S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT INTO THE 20S IN THE COOLEST
SPOTS TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS AND ATOP THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SHARP COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A NARROW
LINE OF CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS. AT 855 AM, THE COLD FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF A SANDY HOOK TO JACKSON TO MIDDLESBORO LINE. WIND
GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY GUSTED TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THOUGH A GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KLOZ AS
THE LINE PASSED. TEMPERATURES ARE CRASHING INTO THE 30S JUST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
IS PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE A FEW FLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THE
HEAVIEST PART OF THIS BAND WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
BRUSH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
UPSTREAM WEBCAMS SHOW AT LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION UNDER THE
STRONGER PARTS OF THE BAND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FINAL CONVECTIVE RAINBAND OF THE EVENT
PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45
MPH PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS UP TO TWO INCHES, WILL FALL BY THE TIME THIS LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT ARE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN THE FURTHEST NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS THIS RAIN FALLS ONTO SATURATED SOILS
AND INTO BASINS WHERE SOME RIVER GAGES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (KENTUCKY, NORTH FORK AND SOUTH FORK
KENTUCKY, LEVISA FORK, AND CUMBERLAND RIVERS ESPECIALLY). FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ONGOING WITH
REPORTS OF WATER RESCUES AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 30-40 MPH, INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ADD AN ADDITIONAL THREAT
OF BLOWING OVER WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND BRANCHES IN SATURATED
SOILS, PERHAPS CAUSING A FEW ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOW 30S, THE
SECONDARY PRECIP BAND WILL BE SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCH RANGE. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS, ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
KY/VA BORDER. WITH ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JETSTREAK
PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. AS
THE JET CORE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SNOW RATIOS TO BE 13-15:1. TOTAL
FORECAST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES
NECESSITATING SOME WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS AND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES, GOING
TO OPT FOR THE MIDSHIFT OR TOMORROW'S DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE NEW WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BUT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTLY FLOW WILL
BRING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO LOW-20S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SUBTLE
WARMING IS EXPECTED AND THE AREA WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-40S
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AT TAF
ISSUANCE. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY HIGH IFR TO LOW MVFR AND ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BRIEFLY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ086>088-110-
113-115>120.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...WFO SGF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page