373
FXUS63 KJKL 162023
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING THREAT LINGERS AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND MOISTURE REFREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING TO AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S HISTORIC STORM SYSTEM. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW NARROW LIGHT STREAMERS, BUT SO FAR THE SNOW CRYSTAL HABIT HERE
AT THE OFFICE HAS BEEN SMALL AND GRAINY. A GUSTY WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW, FREQUENTLY GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ~988MB LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, CONTINUES TO BRING
COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER, THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITES THIS EVENING. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AND A SEMI-FAVORABLY
ORIENTED UPSLOPE FLOW PROMOTING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, LIKELY OF A
LINEAR STREAMER MODE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW. THE
MOISTURE REACHING INTO THE DGZ WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
THROUGH NIGHT, LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR RATHER
VARIABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, EVEN OVER SHORT DISTANCES. IN GENERAL
EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW (ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS) OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATION COUNTIES FROM JOHNSON TO BREATHITT TO WHITLEY
WESTWARD AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FURTHER EAST TO VIRGINIA. A FEW
ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITHIN THE STRONGEST
SNOW SHOWERS, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH, LEADING TO POOR
VISIBILITY AND RAPID DETERIORATION IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FINALLY,
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO AND THROUGH THE 20S OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
INTO THE 10S IN NORTHWESTERN LOCALES AND OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SHOULD LEAD TO A REFREEZING OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW-COVERED
UNDER THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY. IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MUCH OF THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
10S TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JETSTREAK
PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. AS
THE JET CORE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SNOW RATIOS TO BE 13-15:1. TOTAL
FORECAST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES
NECESSITATING SOME WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS AND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES, GOING
TO OPT FOR THE MIDSHIFT OR TOMORROW'S DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE NEW WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BUT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
LOW-20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SUBTLE WARMING IS EXPECTED AND THE AREA
WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AT TAF
ISSUANCE. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY HIGH IFR TO LOW MVFR AND ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPTICK IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, BRIEFLY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ086>088-110-
113-115>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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