019
FXUS63 KJKL 170606
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
106 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING THREAT LINGERS AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND MOISTURE REFREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BANDED SNOW SHOWERS/STREAMERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN SLOW, BUT THERE HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN ROAD
PROBLEMS NOTED, AND THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO STAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING EAST SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, LIKELY PEAKING IN
COVERAGE. MULTIPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES HAVE HAD MEASURABLE WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIP SO FAR THIS EVENING, AND MORE MAY REGISTER YET.
HAVE HELD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR A LITTLE WHILE YET FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT WILL LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DECLINE IN PRECIP AS THE FRONTAL
INVERSION SINKS AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. HAVE LET THE
ADVISORY RIDE. IT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS ACTIVITY DECLINES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING TO AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S HISTORIC STORM SYSTEM. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW NARROW LIGHT STREAMERS, BUT SO FAR THE SNOW CRYSTAL HABIT HERE
AT THE OFFICE HAS BEEN SMALL AND GRAINY. A GUSTY WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW, FREQUENTLY GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ~988MB LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, CONTINUES TO BRING
COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER, THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITES THIS EVENING. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AND A SEMI-FAVORABLY
ORIENTED UPSLOPE FLOW PROMOTING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, LIKELY OF A
LINEAR STREAMER MODE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW. THE
MOISTURE REACHING INTO THE DGZ WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
THROUGH NIGHT, LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR RATHER
VARIABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, EVEN OVER SHORT DISTANCES. IN GENERAL
EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW (ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS) OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATION COUNTIES FROM JOHNSON TO BREATHITT TO WHITLEY
WESTWARD AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FURTHER EAST TO VIRGINIA. A FEW
ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITHIN THE STRONGEST
SNOW SHOWERS, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH, LEADING TO POOR
VISIBILITY AND RAPID DETERIORATION IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FINALLY,
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO AND THROUGH THE 20S OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
INTO THE 10S IN NORTHWESTERN LOCALES AND OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SHOULD LEAD TO A REFREEZING OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW-COVERED
UNDER THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY. IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MUCH OF THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
10S TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JETSTREAK
PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. AS
THE JET CORE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SNOW RATIOS TO BE 13-15:1. TOTAL
FORECAST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES
NECESSITATING SOME WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS AND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES, GOING
TO OPT FOR THE MID SHIFT OR TOMORROW'S DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE NEW
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BUT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
LOW-20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SUBTLE WARMING IS EXPECTED AND THE AREA
WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-40S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH
WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-75.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106>109-111-
112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ086>088-110-113-115>120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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