223
FXUS63 KJKL 171023
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
523 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING THREAT LINGERS AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND MOISTURE REFREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BANDED SNOW SHOWERS/STREAMERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN SLOW, BUT THERE HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN ROAD
PROBLEMS NOTED, AND THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO STAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING EAST SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, LIKELY PEAKING IN
COVERAGE. MULTIPLE AUTOMATED GAUGES HAVE HAD MEASURABLE WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIP SO FAR THIS EVENING, AND MORE MAY REGISTER YET.
HAVE HELD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR A LITTLE WHILE YET FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT WILL LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DECLINE IN PRECIP AS THE FRONTAL
INVERSION SINKS AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. HAVE LET THE
ADVISORY RIDE. IT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS ACTIVITY DECLINES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING TO AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S HISTORIC STORM SYSTEM. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW NARROW LIGHT STREAMERS, BUT SO FAR THE SNOW CRYSTAL HABIT HERE
AT THE OFFICE HAS BEEN SMALL AND GRAINY. A GUSTY WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW, FREQUENTLY GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ~988MB LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, CONTINUES TO BRING
COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AS THE AIRMASS COOLS FURTHER, THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITES THIS EVENING. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AND A SEMI-FAVORABLY
ORIENTED UPSLOPE FLOW PROMOTING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, LIKELY OF A
LINEAR STREAMER MODE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW. THE
MOISTURE REACHING INTO THE DGZ WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
THROUGH NIGHT, LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR RATHER
VARIABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, EVEN OVER SHORT DISTANCES. IN GENERAL
EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW (ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS) OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATION COUNTIES FROM JOHNSON TO BREATHITT TO WHITLEY
WESTWARD AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FURTHER EAST TO VIRGINIA. A FEW
ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITHIN THE STRONGEST
SNOW SHOWERS, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH, LEADING TO POOR
VISIBILITY AND RAPID DETERIORATION IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FINALLY,
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO AND THROUGH THE 20S OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
INTO THE 10S IN NORTHWESTERN LOCALES AND OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER SHOULD LEAD TO A REFREEZING OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW-COVERED
UNDER THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY. IN SPITE OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MUCH OF THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
10S TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MODELED TO FOLLOW THE EAST SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTH AND WEST OUT OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS
LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK LEVEL VORTICITY
SURGING NORTH AND EAST FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. WHILE MODELS DON'T
EXACTLY AGREE ON THE TWO SOURCES OF ENERGY FAZING, THEY WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE CORN BELT AND
OZARKS AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWBANDS TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW SLOPPED
FRONTOGENESIS LAYERS, OMEGA VALUES OF -8 OR LESS IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, AND NEAR SATURATED LOW-MID LEVELS WITH LITTLE TO NO
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, ALSO IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE TILL PLAINS. AS THIS LOW PASSES
NORTH AND EAST, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE LOWS WAKE, COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST IN
THE MID 20S, WITH LOWS AT NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TOWARDS I-75, AND LOW TEENS EAST OF I-75. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY GET COLDER HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN LOW 20S, AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES (OR WIND
CHILLS) THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE, WITH
ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. HEIGHTS WILL RISE FRIDAY, HOWEVER A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY, LEADING TO LOW END SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF HARLAN AND LETCHER. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH HEIGHT RISES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL, POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH
WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-75.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ086>088-110-113-115>120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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