172
FXUS63 KJKL 171102
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
602 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING THREAT LINGERS AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND MOISTURE REFREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN DEEP INTO
THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH SOME 10S ARE NOTED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,500 FEET. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DEEPER INTO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THIN AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
TRENDS NEUTRAL. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST TONIGHT, A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
FAVORABLE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 250 MB JET
COULD FORCE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH. WHILE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL BE
FURTHER WEST, HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS ENOUGH FORCING FOR A BRIEF
TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE KENTUCKY AND CUMBERLAND
RIVER BASINS, PERHAPS GIVING A DUSTING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT EAST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY, AIDING IN RENEWED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
END THIS MORNING, YIELDING TO A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
SLIPPERY SPOTS ARE LIKELY WHERE WATER HAS FROZEN TO UNTREATED
SURFACES. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
SETTLING BACK INTO THE MID 10S NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW COULD BREAK OUT SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY TOWARD DAWN. ON TUESDAY, ANY LIGHT MORNING SNOW GIVES WAY
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN FLEMING COUNTY TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MODELED TO FOLLOW THE EAST SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
SOUTH AND WEST OUT OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS
LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK LEVEL VORTICITY
SURGING NORTH AND EAST FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. WHILE MODELS DON'T
EXACTLY AGREE ON THE TWO SOURCES OF ENERGY FAZING, THEY WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE CORN BELT AND
OZARKS AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWBANDS TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW SLOPPED
FRONTOGENESIS LAYERS, OMEGA VALUES OF -8 OR LESS IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, AND NEAR SATURATED LOW-MID LEVELS WITH LITTLE TO NO
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, ALSO IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE TILL PLAINS. AS THIS LOW PASSES
NORTH AND EAST, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE LOWS WAKE, COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST IN
THE MID 20S, WITH LOWS AT NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TOWARDS I-75, AND LOW TEENS EAST OF I-75. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY GET COLDER HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN LOW 20S, AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES (OR WIND
CHILLS) THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE, WITH
ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. HEIGHTS WILL RISE FRIDAY, HOWEVER A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY, LEADING TO LOW END SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF HARLAN AND LETCHER. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH HEIGHT RISES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL, POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH
WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-75.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ086>088-110-113-115>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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