488
FXUS63 KJKL 172055
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING THREAT LINGERS AT MANY LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON TAP AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
AFTER A CLEARING TREND TODAY, CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A PASSING
DISTURBANCE. INTRODUCED LOW-END POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR, GENERALLY
NO MORE THAN A DUSTING, AND WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM HAS
CONSISTENTLY WITHIN THE GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLES PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR MANY DAYS NOW, AND THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY,
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW. FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM, THOUGH THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND TOTAL SNOW FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COVER BOTH SYSTEMS.
THE OVERALL FORECAST TREND IN QPF HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DOWNWARD,
THOUGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS ALSO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER. THE OVERALL
TREND HAS THUS BEEN GRADUALLY LOWER WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THIS STILL PUTS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON OR NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF 4 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN A
48-HOUR PERIOD. FOR NOW, DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH
COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, WITH HARLAN COUNTY ADDED GIVEN
INCREASING CERTAINTY THAT WARNING-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
REACHED IN AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AND/OR EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.
FOR THE COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THESE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN TIMING,
ESPECIALLY AS SOME COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
FROM THE SECOND SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH AN EXITING WINTER STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
STATE. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER IT EXITS, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROUGHING AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OF KENTUCKY BY 12Z, ALSO EXITING
EAST AROUND 18Z. THIS SECOND AREA OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SECOND RESURGENCE IN THE SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND MAY POSSIBLY ALLOW THE POPS TO HOLD
ON A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CATCH ON TO
THIS TREND, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED THAT IF THIS AGREEMENT
CONTINUES, POPS MAY EXPAND LONGER INTO THURSDAY. EVEN SO, WPC DIDN'T
HAVE ANY QPF PAST 18Z AT THIS POINT EITHER.
THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY. BY 0Z FRIDAY THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA,
ALLOWING A DEEP PULL OF NORTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION ON IT'S BACK
SIDE. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TAKING HOLD FROM THE WEST, FINALLY BRINGING A BREAK TO OUR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE
SOME OF OUR COLDEST NIGHTS, GIVEN THE INFLUX OF CAA AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT SHOULD WARM BACK TO AROUND FREEZING BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SUN MAKES A WELCOMED DEBUT. FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY, HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. THE ECWMF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SHORTWAVE, AND
THEREFORE KEEPS US DRY. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IN WHICH IS THE
CORRECT SOLUTION IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT, SO JUST STUCK WITH THE
NBM WHICH TRIES TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. IN DOING SO, THIS DID
RESULT IN SOME VERY ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ODD PART ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR, IT'S BEING MODELED AS SNOW, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS
POINT. MORE THAN LIKELY THIS WILL ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
THE MODELS THEN DO A SWITCH-A-ROO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE EXITING AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. MEANWHILE, THE GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT,
THAT THEN SHIFTS NORTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE,
INCLUDING EASTERN KENTUCKY, FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. QUITE THE
CONTRAST FROM THE DRY ECMWF. AGAIN, WITH VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
WHICH TREND WILL PLAY OUT, AND GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS IS IN THE
FORECAST, STUCK WITH THE NBM SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, INSTEAD
OF TRYING TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE, IT APPEARS AS THOUGHT THE LAST
GFS SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM, OR THE NBM IS PLAYING UP THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, AS IT ALSO SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CHANGES
AS MODELS START TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT IF THERE WILL BE
A SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH (AND RESULTING PRECIP), OR NOT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
BORDERLINE MVFR/LOW-VFR CIGS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH
WIDESPREAD FLURRIES CONTINUING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER IMPROVE TO
VFR AREA-WIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER
OUT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING, WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH CIG
HEIGHTS (WHETHER MVFR OR LOW-VFR) AT THAT TIME. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ044-051-052-084>087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC
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