847
FXUS63 KJKL 181531
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING OR HIGH WATER LINGERS IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
SANDY, KENTUCKY, AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS INTO WEDNESDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS FORECAST
FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- WINDCHILL VALUES OR SINGLE DIGIT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
RAISED POPS AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING
FLURRIES TO LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ONE-HALF INCH, AND LIKELY STILL BELOW ONE-QUARTER INCH. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE A DUSTING OR LESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED ON RADAR WITH THOSE IN THE SOUTH MOST
LIKELY JUST VIRGA WHILE FLURRIES AND PATCHY LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS NEAR I 64 IN KY AND INTO PORTIONS OF IL
AND IN. THIS IS FROM A LEAD DISTURBANCE AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
UPCOMING WINTER EVENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A DUSTING OF SNOW TO
AS MUCH A QUARTER OF A INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL FROM THIS, BUT
MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO JUST EXPERIENCE FLURRIES. HOURLY GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL OW WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MARITIMES WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST TO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND US
CANADIAN BORDER REGIONS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS AXIS
AND ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY AREA INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AND LEADING TO SOME LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS PATCHY FLURRIES AND EVEN VERY LIGHT
SNOW FROM PARTS OF IL AND IN ACROSS THE LOUISVILLE TO FRANKFORT TO
LEXINGTON TO NORTH OF THE MTN PKWY CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. A
DUSTING WAS REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AT MOUNT STERLING.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCALLY,
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH UPPER TEENS IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY AND NEAR THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. THE MORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION AND THEN DROP INTO IL ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. DOWNSTREAM OF
THAT, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AXIS OF IT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
EASTERN KY. THIS WILL TAKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE
ADVECTED INTO THE COMMONWEALTH AHEAD OF IT TO THE EAST. SOME LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN BEHIND IT WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT KICKING IN BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS TO OH ON
WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG
WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THE FIRST WEAKER SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY WITH AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY NEAR OR
NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MOVES NEARLY DUE
EAST. A DUSTING TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL FROM
THIS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY. FLURRIES MAY END DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND NORTH OF A SFC SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF TO
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BEFORE THAT LOW WEAKENS ON WED AS NEW
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR A COASTAL FRONT/GULF STREAM
VICINITY. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE OMEGA NOT ONLY WITHIN
THE DGZ BUT ABOVE THE DGZ AS WELL AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WITH THE
OMEGA PEAKING WITHIN AND ABOVE THE DGZ. OVERALL, SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE GENERALLY 12 TO 17 TO 1. HOWEVER,
THE PROFILE WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS NEARER TO OR OVER
20 TO 1 AS THERE SHOULD BE OTHER ICE CRYSTAL TYPES THAN PRIMARILY
DENDRITES. DESPITE THAT, SNOW COULD FALL AT RATES OF AT LEAST A
HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST
PART OF THE EVENT FORECAST IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA OF FLEMING, BATH, AND ROWAN COUNTIES. IN THE WARNING
AREA TOTALS FROM THE INITIAL SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
INCHES, BUT TOTALS MAY APPROACH 5 INCHES.
FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL ROUND WHERE THE MAJORITY OF SNOW FROM THE
UPCOMING EVENT WILL FALL, THERE SHOULD BE SPOTTY SNOW OR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENTER THE OH VALLEY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES DECENT OMEGA IN THE DGZ AND A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE MORE SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH OR AN INCH TO AS MUCH
AS 2 OR MORE INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE HEADLINES, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NORTHERN ADVISORY
OR THE INITIAL WINTER STORM WARNING SEGMENT. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE NEAR THE TN BORDER. WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION AND
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
AND AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF MCCREARY, WHITLEY, KNOX, AND BELL
COUNTIES HAVING QPF AND SNOW RATIOS RESULTING IN EVENT TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF 4 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE, OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING THERE WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGE. SOME OF THESE COUNTIES ARE RECOVERING FROM THE
RECENT FLOODING AND OVER END/MARGINAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE IMPACT THAT USUAL FOR THIS EVENT MAGNITUDE. FURTHER NORTH
IN THE PRIOR WINTER STORM WARNING SEGMENTS CONFIDENCE AND
PROBABILITY OF 4 INCH OR GREATER TOTALS IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF TOTALS AND SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM RECENT GFS,
ECMWF, HRRR, AND RAP RUNS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN A PULASKI TO
PERRY TO PIKE COUNTY LINE AND AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF THE MTN
PKWY CORRIDOR. OPTED TO GO WITH SOME HIGHER QPF IN THAT AREA THAN
INITIAL WPC GUIDANCE AND FACTORED IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
NBM THERE. SOME ENHANCED BANDING MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA
AND TOTALS OF THE STEADIER INITIAL SNOWFALL LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING TOTALS TO NEAR 6
OR 7 INCHES. 75TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL IN THAT AREA IS IN THE 6 TO
7 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY NEAR 8 INCHES IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN PIKE COUNTY NEAR THE KY MESONET SITE/FLATWOODS AREA AS
WELL AS THE HIGHER RIDGES IN THE PHELPS VICINITY THAT DIVIDE THE
TUG FORK, LEVIS FORK, AND JOHNS CREEK DRAINAGES. ALTHOUGH ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING, THE 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS IN
MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE AND NEARLY 9
INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN PIKE COUNTY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/OHIO RIVER VALLY AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. THIS
WILL PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS,
AND ELEVATED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, EAST OF I-
75. WITH HEALTHY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 20S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND FRESH SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
SOME COLDER SPOTS MAY BE OBSERVED CLOSER TO I-75, WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
HEIGHT RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS IN
THE SLOT CANYON REGION OF UTAH. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST, WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OUT AHEAD OF IT, AND OVER THE STATE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE LOW (UNDER 15 %)
SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WHILE LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE
TO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UNDER 15%). SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE GENERALLY AROUND 30.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES (20-30% CHANCE)
DURING TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
REPORTED SOUTH AND LOW CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF A NEAR OR NORTH OF A KSME TO KJKL TO KSJS LINE. UPSTREAM MVFR
OR EVEN IFR WAS OBSERVED IN PARTS OF IL AND IN WITH SOME MVFR IN
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
WAS OCCURRING FROM SOME OF THIS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR SHOULD AFFECT SPREAD TOWARD THE TAF
SITES BY 15Z AND AFTER WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR LINGERS
IN MANY AREAS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM NEARS LATE IN THE PERIOD. MVFR
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE 00Z TO 06Z PERIOD
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY MVFR WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AS WELL. MVFR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD WITH SOME IFR AS WELL
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO CEILINGS, SOME VISIBILITIES
DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE IF NOT IFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE TO END
THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-051-052.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ084>087.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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