882
FXUS63 KJKL 182038
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- RIVER FLOODING OR HIGH WATER LINGERS IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
SANDY, KENTUCKY, AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SOUTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF
WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AND QPF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO TREND POPS
MORE AGGRESSIVELY UPWARDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT QPF WAS ADDED FOR THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
TOWARD PIKE COUNTY GIVEN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION AND OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN PLAY. WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BATH AND ROWAN COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE OTHER BIG STORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS THE
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN RECENT RECOVERY EFFORTS AND MANY PEOPLE
DISPLACED FROM RECENT FLOODING, IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE HIGHER NUMBER OF PEOPLE
POTENTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS. WE HAVE THUS ISSUED AN
IMPACT-BASED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED ESPECIALLY WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/OHIO RIVER VALLY AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. THIS
WILL PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS,
AND ELEVATED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, EAST OF I-
75. WITH HEALTHY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 20S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND FRESH SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
SOME COLDER SPOTS MAY BE OBSERVED CLOSER TO I-75, WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
HEIGHT RISES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS IN
THE SLOT CANYON REGION OF UTAH. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST, WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OUT AHEAD OF IT, AND OVER THE STATE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE LOW (UNDER 15 %)
SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WHILE LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE
TO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UNDER 15%). SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE GENERALLY AROUND 30.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES (20-30% CHANCE)
DURING TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY NORTH OF KY-80
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SOME MVFR
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OR ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS LINGER IN MANY AREAS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 00Z/WED AND 06Z/WED WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR LOWER ARE LIKELY AFTER 06Z/WED AND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z-15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
MVFR TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ084>087.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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