912
FXUS63 KJKL 190645 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- RIVER FLOODING OR HIGH WATER LINGERS IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
SANDY, KENTUCKY, AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT RADAR RETURNS AND
OBSERVATIONS TO INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
THE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOOKING AT
00Z GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z HREF, THE FORECAST AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
10 PM OBS SHOW SNOW HAS MADE IT PAST KI62 (LEBANON), KAAS
(CAMPBELLSVILLE), AND KGLW (GLASGOW) IN CENTRAL KY. BASED ON THIS
ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS, HAVE FURTHER REFINED THE TIMING INTO
JKL'S FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONTICELLO TO IRVINE IS LIKELY TO SEE
IT BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR, WITH SNOW THEN EXPANDING OVER MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY AROUND 2 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
HAVE LOWERED THE VERY NEAR TERM POP FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED
ON RADAR DATA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS BY
06Z, WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THAN WAS EARLIER
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SOUTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF
WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AND QPF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO TREND POPS
MORE AGGRESSIVELY UPWARDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT QPF WAS ADDED FOR THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
TOWARD PIKE COUNTY GIVEN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION AND OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN PLAY. WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BATH AND ROWAN COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE OTHER BIG STORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS THE
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN RECENT RECOVERY EFFORTS AND MANY PEOPLE
DISPLACED FROM RECENT FLOODING, IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE HIGHER NUMBER OF PEOPLE
POTENTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS. WE HAVE THUS ISSUED AN
IMPACT-BASED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED ESPECIALLY WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFIED WEST NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEPER CLOSED LOW WILL START
OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST,
REACHING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGHING. A SERIES OF PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN
TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE WILL BRING MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (AROUND 30%) FOR THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A SOMEWHAT BEEFIER
ENERGY, WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW, KEEPING THINGS DRY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD,
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CRUISES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A SNOWY START ON THURSDAY, WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK. HAVE STAYED
MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED ON THE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, WITH MINIMUM
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY, GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER, 850
MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE NEGATIVE TEENS, AND LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 20S.
FLURRIES WILL LINGER WHERE CLOUD COVER STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF I-75, WHERE SOME CLEARING COULD WORK IN
LATE, WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. WIND
CHILLS WILL APPROACH 0 IN THE COLDER SOUTHWEST VALLEYS, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE ONGOING POST-FLOOD OPERATIONS
AND IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED A MORE
IMPACT-BASED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MORE PARTICULARLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH BETTER CLEARING, LIGHT WINDS, AND STILL A
SOLID SNOWPACK IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGITS IN
MOST OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR
EAST MORE DECISIVELY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RETURN FLOW WILL ENSUE, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFYING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE STILL KEPT NIGHTLY
VALLEY TEMPERATURES BELOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, GIVEN THE MORE
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR VALLEY DECOUPLING, AS WELL AS THE GRADUALLY
ERODING SNOWPACK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND LEADING TO MVFR OR IFR IF
NOT LOWER REDUCTIONS AT TIMES TO ALL BUT LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 AND ALONG THE TN AND VA BORDER. CEILINGS IN THE IFR
AND MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW THAT GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z.
IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS NEARING OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT TIME WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW. A RELATIVE LULL SHOULD
OCCUR WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR IF NOT MOSTLY VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE AND STEADIER SNOW NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BACK INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGE IF NOT LOWER ARE FORECAST WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS CONTINUING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP
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