173  
FXUS63 KJKL 190814  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
314 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS  
FORECAST FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
- RIVER FLOODING OR HIGH WATER LINGERS IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG  
SANDY, KENTUCKY, AND CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING  
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025  
 
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT RADAR RETURNS AND  
OBSERVATIONS TO INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS  
THE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY. SNOW  
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOOKING AT  
00Z GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z HREF, THE FORECAST AMOUNTS LOOK ON TRACK.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025  
 
10 PM OBS SHOW SNOW HAS MADE IT PAST KI62 (LEBANON), KAAS  
(CAMPBELLSVILLE), AND KGLW (GLASGOW) IN CENTRAL KY. BASED ON THIS  
ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS, HAVE FURTHER REFINED THE TIMING INTO  
JKL'S FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE WESTERN EDGE  
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONTICELLO TO IRVINE IS LIKELY TO SEE  
IT BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR, WITH SNOW THEN EXPANDING OVER MOST IF  
NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY AROUND 2 AM.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025  
 
HAVE LOWERED THE VERY NEAR TERM POP FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED  
ON RADAR DATA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS BY  
06Z, WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THAN WAS EARLIER  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025  
 
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN  
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SOUTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.  
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF  
WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS  
AND QPF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN  
KENTUCKY.  
 
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO TREND POPS  
MORE AGGRESSIVELY UPWARDS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT QPF WAS ADDED FOR THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY  
TOWARD PIKE COUNTY GIVEN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION AND OROGRAPHIC  
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN PLAY. WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BATH AND ROWAN COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED  
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  
 
THE OTHER BIG STORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS THE  
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN RECENT RECOVERY EFFORTS AND MANY PEOPLE  
DISPLACED FROM RECENT FLOODING, IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE HIGHER NUMBER OF PEOPLE  
POTENTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS. WE HAVE THUS ISSUED AN  
IMPACT-BASED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED ESPECIALLY WITH WIND  
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025  
 
FRIDAY, HEIGHT RISES ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING WORKING  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE OZARKS REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND TEENS ALONG RIDGETOPS. ANOTHER  
TROUGH FORMS IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT AREA OF EASTERN  
COLORADO AS WELL.  
 
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS  
KENTUCKY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE LOW  
(UNDER 15 %) SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING  
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING  
TREND CONTINUING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID  
40S, WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AT NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A  
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE  
TO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER  
CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER  
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW  
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UNDER 15%). SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME  
FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER  
CONTINUES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN  
THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S ON RIDGETOPS.  
 
MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S  
DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT NIGHT. THERE  
MAY BE SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES (15-20% CHANCE) AFTER MIDNIGHT  
MONDAY, SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.  
 
TUESDAY, SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, OUT OF SOUTHERN  
CANADA, HOWEVER THIS ONE MAY BRING BETTER SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA  
ON TUESDAY (A 20-30% CHANCE, EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 50S WILL BE WELCOMED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025  
 
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND LEADING TO MVFR OR IFR IF  
NOT LOWER REDUCTIONS AT TIMES TO ALL BUT LOCATIONS NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 64 AND ALONG THE TN AND VA BORDER. CEILINGS IN THE IFR  
AND MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW THAT GRADUALLY  
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z.  
IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS NEARING OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED AT TIME WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW. A RELATIVE LULL SHOULD  
OCCUR WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS  
PREVAILING THEREAFTER UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND  
IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO  
MVFR IF NOT MOSTLY VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER  
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE AND STEADIER SNOW NEAR  
THE END OF THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BACK INTO THE MVFR  
AND IFR RANGE IF NOT LOWER ARE FORECAST WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR  
CEILINGS CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044.  
 
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-  
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ050>052-  
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JP  
SHORT TERM...CMC  
LONG TERM...GINNICK  
AVIATION...JP  
 
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