261
FXUS63 KJKL 191024
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
524 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CONTINUES
INTO THIS MORNING, THOUGH STEADIER SNOW TAPERS OFF BY MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
- FOLLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING, ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY.
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN ALL AREAS, BUT THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG AND THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT RAVENNA WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM THE MARITIMES TO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH TROUGHING ALSO SOUTH INTO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY AND THIS SYSTEM WAS NEARING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. FURTHER
NORTHWEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO WESTERN MN AREA. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF WITH
INVERTED TROUGHING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SFC LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, THE
ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT PRESENT, SNOW
IS FALLING ANYWHERE FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE AND IN THE CASE OF
AREAS NEAR AND A BIT EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR ON THE HEAVY SIDE.
THERE WAS A REPORT OF AROUND 3 INCHES THAT HAD FALLEN IN
ROCKCASTLE COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 215 AM EST AND IT CONTINUES TO
SNOW AT A DECENT CLIP IN THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH COLDER
THAN THE SNOW EVENT LAST WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOW 20S FORM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND FROM THE
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET DOWN TO NEARBY VALLEYS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT EAST OF EASTERN KY AROUND MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL LIFT IN THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT EAST, BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER LOW
WILL MEANDER TO THE VICINITY OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWESTERN IL THIS
EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE
MOST NOTABLE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO OH
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LIFT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
THEN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 500 MB/MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND IN PARTICULAR ON THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE PLAINS GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY TO END THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING STEADIER AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LINGER PAST DAWN, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL KY AND INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND LIMITED SOLAR INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SNOW SHOWERS THAT
COULD PRODUCE A HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THEN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND PASSES NORTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH COLD ADVECTION WILL BECOME EVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WITH A DEEPER ROUND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM IN
ADDITION TO INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND STEADY SNOW FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING STEADY SNOW WHICH WILL
PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON TOP OF OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 7 AM
EST TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES
FROM THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND ALSO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, SNOW
THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE NEXT ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHER AND TOTALS FROM 7 AM EST
TODAY TO MIDDAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AGAIN THESE ARE NEW TOTALS FROM AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ON THURSDAY AND ON TOP OF WHAT HAS FALLEN DURING THE NIGHT.
THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN VALID AND NO CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
TRI STATE AREA PEAKING NEAR THE 30 DEGREE MARK. THESE VALUES ARE
ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO THE TEENS AREAWIDE TONIGHT FOR LOWS, WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOW 20S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO LOW TEMPERATURES AND MIN WIND
CHILLS SHOULD AGAIN BOTTOM OUT FROM ABOUT 0 TO 10 ABOVE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES WIND CHILLS A BIT ABOVE TYPICAL CRITERIA,
BUT DUE TO ONGOING SEARCH AND RECOVERY FROM RECENT FLOODING THESE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN USUAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FRIDAY, HEIGHT RISES ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE OZARKS REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND TEENS ALONG RIDGETOPS. ANOTHER
TROUGH FORMS IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT AREA OF EASTERN
COLORADO AS WELL.
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE LOW
(UNDER 15 %) SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING
TREND CONTINUING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S, WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE
TO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UNDER 15%). SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S ON RIDGETOPS.
MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES (15-20% CHANCE) AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY, SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
TUESDAY, SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA, HOWEVER THIS ONE MAY BRING BETTER SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY (A 20-30% CHANCE, EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL BE WELCOMED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND LEADING TO MVFR OR IFR IF
NOT LOWER REDUCTIONS AT TIMES TO ALL BUT LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 AND ALONG THE TN AND VA BORDER. CEILINGS IN THE IFR
AND MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW THAT GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z.
IFR AND LOWER CEILINGS NEARING OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT TIME WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW. A RELATIVE LULL SHOULD
OCCUR WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR IF NOT MOSTLY VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE AND STEADIER SNOW NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BACK INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGE IF NOT LOWER ARE FORECAST WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS CONTINUING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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