679
FXUS63 KJKL 191741
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1241 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CONTINUES
INTO THIS MORNING, THOUGH STEADIER SNOW TAPERS OFF BY MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
- FOLLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING, ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS FOR LATE
THIS EVENING AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY.
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN ALL AREAS, BUT THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG AND THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT RAVENNA WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. ONE LAST HEAVIER BAND
OF SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE KY HIGHWAY
80 CORRIDOR, WHILE SNOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES. GENERALLY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER WITH THE
SECOND SYSTEM. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
AFTER ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS ARRIVED TO MAKE ANY EDITS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, WHICH IS WHEN THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A GOOD PORTION
OF THE SNOW OVERNIGHT FELL AS NON DENDRITES AND CUT INTO THE
ACCUMULATIONS A BIT FOR SOME PLACES. A BAND WITH BETTER DENDRITES
AS EVIDENCED BY KYTC AND KY MESONET WEBCAMS AND HEAVIER RATE IS
ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
JKL. OVERALL, WITH THE REST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AND THE NEXT
ANTICIPATED STEADIER ROUND OF SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING STILL ONGOING, THE WINTER HEADLINES APPEAR ON TRACK. THE
UPPER END AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES MAY NOT BE REACHED, HOWEVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM THE MARITIMES TO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH TROUGHING ALSO SOUTH INTO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY AND THIS SYSTEM WAS NEARING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. FURTHER
NORTHWEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO WESTERN MN AREA. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF WITH
INVERTED TROUGHING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SFC LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, THE
ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT PRESENT, SNOW
IS FALLING ANYWHERE FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE AND IN THE CASE OF
AREAS NEAR AND A BIT EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR ON THE HEAVY SIDE.
THERE WAS A REPORT OF AROUND 3 INCHES THAT HAD FALLEN IN
ROCKCASTLE COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 215 AM EST AND IT CONTINUES TO
SNOW AT A DECENT CLIP IN THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH COLDER
THAN THE SNOW EVENT LAST WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOW 20S FORM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND FROM THE
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET DOWN TO NEARBY VALLEYS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND SHIFT EAST OF EASTERN KY AROUND MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL LIFT IN THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT EAST, BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER LOW
WILL MEANDER TO THE VICINITY OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWESTERN IL THIS
EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE
MOST NOTABLE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO OH
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LIFT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
THEN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 500 MB/MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND IN PARTICULAR ON THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE PLAINS GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY TO END THE PERIOD.
THE ONGOING STEADIER AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LINGER PAST DAWN, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM CENTRAL KY AND INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND LIMITED SOLAR INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SNOW SHOWERS THAT
COULD PRODUCE A HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THEN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND PASSES NORTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH COLD ADVECTION WILL BECOME EVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WITH A DEEPER ROUND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM IN
ADDITION TO INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND STEADY SNOW FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING STEADY SNOW WHICH WILL
PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON TOP OF OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 7 AM
EST TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES
FROM THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND ALSO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, SNOW
THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE NEXT ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHER AND TOTALS FROM 7 AM EST
TODAY TO MIDDAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES.
AGAIN THESE ARE NEW TOTALS FROM AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ON THURSDAY AND ON TOP OF WHAT HAS FALLEN DURING THE NIGHT.
THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN VALID AND NO CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
TRI STATE AREA PEAKING NEAR THE 30 DEGREE MARK. THESE VALUES ARE
ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO THE TEENS AREAWIDE TONIGHT FOR LOWS, WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOW 20S. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO LOW TEMPERATURES AND MIN WIND
CHILLS SHOULD AGAIN BOTTOM OUT FROM ABOUT 0 TO 10 ABOVE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES WIND CHILLS A BIT ABOVE TYPICAL CRITERIA,
BUT DUE TO ONGOING SEARCH AND RECOVERY FROM RECENT FLOODING THESE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN USUAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FRIDAY, HEIGHT RISES ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE OZARKS REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND TEENS ALONG RIDGETOPS. ANOTHER
TROUGH FORMS IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT AREA OF EASTERN
COLORADO AS WELL.
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE LOW
(UNDER 15 %) SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING
TREND CONTINUING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S, WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE
TO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UNDER 15%). SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S ON RIDGETOPS.
MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES (15-20% CHANCE) AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY, SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
TUESDAY, SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA, HOWEVER THIS ONE MAY BRING BETTER SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY (A 20-30% CHANCE, EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL BE WELCOMED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
STEADY SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF VFR CONDITIONS. A LULL IN SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD AND
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 09Z TO 12Z AS THE SECOND SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BRIEF INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AS SNOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CONFINED ALONG AND JUST UPSTREAM OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST AT MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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