194
FXUS63 KJKL 192026
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN ALL AREAS, BUT THE KENTUCKY
RIVER AT RAVENNA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING
EAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST AREA FALLING
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM,
INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF YET FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF UPWARD MOTION (I.E.,
LIFT). WOULD THUS EXPECT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN
SQUEEZING OUT A 1- TO 2-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AFTER THE TRANSITORY UPPER LOW AND STRONGEST CURVATURE/SHEAR
VORTICITY ALOFT DEPARTS, THE AREA THEN RESIDES IN A COLD ADVECTION
UPSLOPE REGIME THAT IS QUITE COMMON FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA UNDER THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE.
THE BIG STORY IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW WILL BE THE BITTER COLD.
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THREATENED FOR THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WITH THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT LEAST PARTIALLY IF NOT FULLY CLEARING OUT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A READING NEAR ZERO DEGREES IN ANY SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF US HIGHWAY
421. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL DEFER ONE
MORE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW.
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH THIS TWO-PRONGED WINTER STORM
HAS FALLEN, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM
WARNING AREAS AND EXPIRATION TIMES AS-IS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FRIDAY, HEIGHT RISES ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING WORKING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE OZARKS REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND TEENS ALONG RIDGETOPS. ANOTHER
TROUGH FORMS IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT AREA OF EASTERN
COLORADO AS WELL.
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE LOW
(UNDER 15 %) SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A WARMING
TREND CONTINUING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S, WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE
TO THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (UNDER 15%). SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S ON RIDGETOPS.
MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES (15-20% CHANCE) AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY, SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
TUESDAY, SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA, HOWEVER THIS ONE MAY BRING BETTER SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY (A 20-30% CHANCE, EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S WILL BE WELCOMED, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
STEADY SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF VFR CONDITIONS. A LULL IN SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD AND
AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 09Z TO 12Z AS THE SECOND SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH BRIEF INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AS SNOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CONFINED ALONG AND JUST UPSTREAM OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST AT MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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