490
FXUS63 KJKL 200632 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
132 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING TO FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
- SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE LATEST ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A CLIPPER IS PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
WELL HANDLED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE OTHER THAN THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR
THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE WSWS, NPW, HWO, ZFP,
AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD AIR MASS PUSHING DEEPER INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH CYCLONIC AIR FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT - RENEWING THE SNOW FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE REFREEZING WET ROADS AND ICY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING UNTIL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AT THE LEAST. CURRENTLY, THE SNOW IS IN A
LULL WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING - UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
QUITE COLD OUT THERE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOW AND MID 20S SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 5 OR SO MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE. DID ALSO INCLUDE
THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING
EAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST AREA FALLING
UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM,
INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF YET FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF UPWARD MOTION (I.E.,
LIFT). WOULD THUS EXPECT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EFFICIENT IN
SQUEEZING OUT A 1- TO 2-HOUR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AFTER THE TRANSITORY UPPER LOW AND STRONGEST CURVATURE/SHEAR
VORTICITY ALOFT DEPARTS, THE AREA THEN RESIDES IN A COLD ADVECTION
UPSLOPE REGIME THAT IS QUITE COMMON FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA UNDER THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE.
THE BIG STORY IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW WILL BE THE BITTER COLD.
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THREATENED FOR THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WITH THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT LEAST PARTIALLY IF NOT FULLY CLEARING OUT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A READING NEAR ZERO DEGREES IN ANY SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF US HIGHWAY
421. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL DEFER ONE
MORE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW.
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH THIS TWO-PRONGED WINTER STORM
HAS FALLEN, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM
WARNING AREAS AND EXPIRATION TIMES AS-IS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS, WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE UPTICK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING A WEAKER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AS SUCH, AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE THE EXTENT OF THE INFLUENCE
FROM THIS FEATURE, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, ALLOWING FOR WARMER LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW.
THE NEXT WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW (20-30%), GIVEN
THE MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE POPS ARRIVING IN FROM THE WEST JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING; HOWEVER, THE BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 30S. ONE MORE PARTICULARLY COLD NIGHT
IN THE VALLEYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
CALM WINDS, AND A LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF
MORE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT HAVE KEPT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMING MORE CONSERVATIVELY EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT, GIVEN THE ONLY
GRADUALLY ERODING SNOWPACK AND FAVORABLE DECOUPLING. NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
AN AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 15Z, WITH
THE ACTIVITY PEAKING DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THIS
IS LEADING TO GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
OR VISIBILITIES AS IT PASSES. SOME AREAS OF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR IN
BETWEEN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THE STRATOCU MAY TEND TO FILL BACK IN WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH AROUND 21Z. THESE
SHOULD TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTER IN AND HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO EASTERN KY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR
FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE NED OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5KT THROUGH 12Z, BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME
FROM 12Z TO 00Z. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WINDS WILL SLACKEN
AND GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page