351
FXUS63 KJKL 201700
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1200 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- 0 TO 10 ABOVE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING,
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND FLURRIES. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN SPS
TO HIGHLIGHT ANY LINGERING SLICK SPOTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWER CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
UPSTREAM. NO CHANGES IN POPS WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IN
AND OH BORDER WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OR TWO WERE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED WITH AN GENERAL AREA OF
TROUGHING FROM THE MARITIMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE MS, OH, AND TN VALLEYS TO SOUTHEAST. FURTHER WEST,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN WY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
JUST TO ITS WEST FROM BC TO THE INTERIOR NW TO NV/UT BORDER AREA
TO AZ. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH
OFF THE VA AND NC COAST. MEANWHILE, COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. LIGHTER MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGER BACK TO THE WEST
GENERALLY WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT INTO CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS OF
OH AND IN.
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE, THE STEEPER MAX LASE RATE NEARER TO OR
IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM WITHIN THE 2 TO 6 KM LAYER THAT HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES/VA BORDER AREA. LAPSE RATES OF 6.5C OR
HIGHER DO LINGER BACK TO THE WEST WHERE THE SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IN, NORTHERN KY, AND SOUTHERN OH
AND CENTRAL KY. THE STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST BEFORE DAWN AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO OH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART, BUT
SATURATION OR NEAR SATURATION IN THE DGZ WILL LINGER AS WINDS
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WILL BE UPSLOPE/NORTHWEST
WHICH FAVOR THE ESCARPMENT AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO
DIMINISH NOT LONG AFTER DAWN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE USPLOPE FLOW AND
SATURATION IN THE DGZ LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES WERE LINGERED INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST
WITH CHANCES LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
BY TONIGHT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR AT LEAST WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO AID
IN THIS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS ALSO RISE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NEARS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE, ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT WITH RIDGING ALSO EXTENDING EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY, THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/WESTERN PARTS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH.
A COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACES ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 0 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE,
BUT SHOULD BE AS LOW AS 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ABOVE 2000 FEET. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT -16 TO -19C TODAY AND THE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE LOW 20S AND
MAY NOT REACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. OPTED TO GO LOWER THAN NBM
DETERMINISTIC VALUES TODAY TO NEAR IF NOT A DEGREE OR SO BELOW THE
50TH PERCENTILE CONSIDERING THE COLD AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER
IN PLACE. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT AND FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE WHILE
LOWS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHEAST DROP
INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. LESS CLOUD COVER ON AVERAGE, BUT
WITH MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN ABOUT 850
MB AND 925 MB, CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO OR
DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE FOR FRIDAY, BUT STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY, A TROUGH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE OZARKS AREA IN
MISSOURI, WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH NO EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE TEENS AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THE LEE SIDE OF A
WEST COST RIDGE, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY WONT ARRIVE
TO THE STATE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. SO DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S ON RIDGETOPS.
MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS IN THE 30S AT NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
END SHOWER CHANCES (15-20% CHANCE) AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY, SPREADING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST, WITH THE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE.
TUESDAY, SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA, HOWEVER MODELS DIVERGE IN THE DEPTH (OR HOW SOUTH) THE TRACK
GOES, AS WELL AS TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH PRODUCING
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE CANADIAN
MODEL HAS A SHALLOWER TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
PASSING NORTH OF KENTUCKY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S ALONG ANS SOUTH OF JACKSON. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 30S.
NEXT WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, AS THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND RAIN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR OR SOUTH
AND EAST OF A KLOZ TO KJKL TO KSJS LINE WITH VISIBILITY OR CEILING
REDUCTIONS MAINLY TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR REDUCTIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WERE OBSERVED WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN EASTERN KY AND MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. SOME AREAS OF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR IN BETWEEN LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
THE STRATOCU AND CUMULUS MAY TEND TO FILL BACK IN WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 21Z.
THESE SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AND
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO EASTERN KY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME FROM 12Z TO
00Z. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ088-104-106>110-
112-113-115-117>120.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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