153
FXUS63 KJKL 202054
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO LOWER 20S. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS LEFTOVER SNOW FLURRIES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST VERY
SLOWLY WHILE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE INCREASE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ARCTIC ~1041 MB HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ~990 MB LOW WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS
GRADUALLY USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. LOOKING ALOFT, EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ~526 DAM LOW
PIVOTING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE MEAN
RIDGING (WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES) PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.
HEIGHTS TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY,
THOUGH CONTINUED SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75, ONLY
SLOWLY THINNING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUPPORT THE MODIFYING ARCTIC
HIGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO DIRECTLY OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS
WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR LINGERING FLURRIES AND ANY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA/KY BORDER THIS EVENING THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF THERE AND RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO +5F. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH EXTENDS FROM BELL TO
JACKSON AND THEN DOWN TO WAYNE COUNTIES AND ALL THE COUNTIES IN
BETWEEN. FURTHER NORTH, MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO +10F RANGE. WHILE THESE VALUES
ARE ABOVE STANDARD CRITERIA, ONGOING RECOVERY EFFORTS, POWER
OUTAGES, AND ELEVATED EXPOSURE RISKS WERE MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS FOR
THE ISSUANCE OF AN IMPACT-BASED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
NORTHEAST ADJACENT THE VA/KY BORDER INTO PIKE AND FLOYD COUNTIES.
AFTER A COLD FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER NORTHEASTERN HOLLOWS TO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AT
THE SURFACE BUT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE WON'T AMOUNT TO ANY
PRECIPITATION, A TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-40S FOR SATURDAY BUT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S. UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT ALSO WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER-40S. FORTUNATELY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK; HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 20% TO 40% TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND BE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS FLURRIES LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TEMPORARY
REDUCTION BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EAST OF I-75 WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page