212
FXUS63 KJKL 210550 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1250 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS - THOUGH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS QUITE STARK. THESE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST A HOLDING UP OF
THE FLURRIES A BIT LONGER OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO DAWN
BENEATH THE THICKER OF THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. DID ALSO INCLUDE
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS WITH THIS
UPDATE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, NPW, AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR THE SKIES OVER THE
JKL CWA TONIGHT - MOST EFFECTIVE IN THE SOUTHWEST - WHILE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CYCLONIC FLOW, AND SOME SUPPORT
ALOFT WILL LIKELY RETAIN THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM THE LOWEST
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR VIRGINIA. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE VERY COLD AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE,
AMID WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO LOWER 20S. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS LEFTOVER SNOW FLURRIES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST VERY
SLOWLY WHILE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE INCREASE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ARCTIC ~1041 MB HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ~990 MB LOW WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS
GRADUALLY USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. LOOKING ALOFT, EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ~526 DAM LOW
PIVOTING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE MEAN
RIDGING (WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES) PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.
HEIGHTS TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY,
THOUGH CONTINUED SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75, ONLY
SLOWLY THINNING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUPPORT THE MODIFYING ARCTIC
HIGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO DIRECTLY OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS
WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR LINGERING FLURRIES AND ANY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
THE VA/KY BORDER THIS EVENING THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF THERE AND RESULT IN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO +5F. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH EXTENDS FROM BELL TO
JACKSON AND THEN DOWN TO WAYNE COUNTIES AND ALL THE COUNTIES IN
BETWEEN. FURTHER NORTH, MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO +10F RANGE. WHILE THESE VALUES
ARE ABOVE STANDARD CRITERIA, ONGOING RECOVERY EFFORTS, POWER
OUTAGES, AND ELEVATED EXPOSURE RISKS WERE MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS FOR
THE ISSUANCE OF AN IMPACT-BASED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
NORTHEAST ADJACENT THE VA/KY BORDER INTO PIKE AND FLOYD COUNTIES.
AFTER A COLD FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER NORTHEASTERN HOLLOWS TO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AT
THE SURFACE BUT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE WON'T AMOUNT TO ANY
PRECIPITATION, A TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-40S FOR SATURDAY BUT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S. UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT ALSO WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER-40S. FORTUNATELY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK; HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 20% TO 40% TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND BE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. AFTER AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MANY SITES DURING
THE EVENING A TEMPORARY REDUCTION BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK EAST OF I-75 WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER SUBTLE, UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE DAY, FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN, AREA-WIDE, BY MID
MORNING WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
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