288
FXUS63 KJKL 210845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR, TO ABOVE, NORMAL DURING THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DEEPER INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WHILE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS IS WHERE
THE LOW CLOUDS (AND EVEN SOME FLURRIES) ARE STILL HOLDING ON -
SUPPORTED BY A PASSING WAVE ALOFT. ELSEWHERE, CLEAR SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR RADIATION COOLING - DROPPING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND IN A SPOT OR TWO TO BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS ARE UNDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM
- INCLUDING AN IMPACT BASED ONE FOR THE FLOOD RAVAGED AREAS.
SPECIFICALLY, READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM NEGATIVE TWO AT THE
PULASKI MESONET SITE TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE FOR NORTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE KEPT THEIR CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY DEPARTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF STRONG TROUGHING EXITING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL 5H PATTERN ABOVE
KENTUCKY FLATTENS OUT INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH A DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
BE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN FAIRLY
FAST, ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS QUICK WAVE DOES COME THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS
FOR OUR AREA, BUT THE CORE OF ANY ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE NOW
MOISTURE LIMITED JKL CWA. THE RATHER SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT
SUPPORTED USING THE NBM THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS,
THOUGH WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS IN A REGIME OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY - EVEN IN
PLACES THAT RETAINED THEIR CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT.
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS
THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR AND SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A WARMER AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE THE RELATIVE WARMTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST, TONIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
DEVELOPING ON ACCOUNT OF FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND JUST A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND -
MAINLY LATE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL NOT SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE
RISE THROUGH THE DAY, SATURDAY. LOOK FOR READINGS PEAKING IN THE
MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA - DEALING A DEATH BLOW TO MOST OF THE
REMAINING SNOW - THOUGH UPPER 30S MAY BE ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-64 CAN MANAGE.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADJUSTING THE TEMPERATURES FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT. DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM THE NEAR ZERO
POPS FROM THE NBM AS SOME SMALL POSITIVE VALUES JUST START TO
ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AT
THE SURFACE BUT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE WON'T AMOUNT TO ANY
PRECIPITATION, A TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-40S FOR SATURDAY BUT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S. UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT ALSO WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER-40S. FORTUNATELY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK; HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 20% TO 40% TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND BE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. AFTER AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MANY SITES DURING
THE EVENING A TEMPORARY REDUCTION BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK EAST OF I-75 WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER SUBTLE, UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE DAY, FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN, AREA-WIDE, BY MID
MORNING WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
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