587
FXUS63 KJKL 211018
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR, TO ABOVE, NORMAL DURING THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DEEPER INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WHILE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS IS WHERE
THE LOW CLOUDS (AND EVEN SOME FLURRIES) ARE STILL HOLDING ON -
SUPPORTED BY A PASSING WAVE ALOFT. ELSEWHERE, CLEAR SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR RADIATION COOLING - DROPPING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND IN A SPOT OR TWO TO BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS ARE UNDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM
- INCLUDING AN IMPACT BASED ONE FOR THE FLOOD RAVAGED AREAS.
SPECIFICALLY, READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM NEGATIVE TWO AT THE
PULASKI MESONET SITE TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE FOR NORTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE KEPT THEIR CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY DEPARTING TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF STRONG TROUGHING EXITING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL 5H PATTERN ABOVE
KENTUCKY FLATTENS OUT INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH A DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
BE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN FAIRLY
FAST, ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS QUICK WAVE DOES COME THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS
FOR OUR AREA, BUT THE CORE OF ANY ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE NOW
MOISTURE LIMITED JKL CWA. THE RATHER SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT
SUPPORTED USING THE NBM THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS,
THOUGH WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS IN A REGIME OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY - EVEN IN
PLACES THAT RETAINED THEIR CLOUDS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT.
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS
THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR AND SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A WARMER AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE THE RELATIVE WARMTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST, TONIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
DEVELOPING ON ACCOUNT OF FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND JUST A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND -
MAINLY LATE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL NOT SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE
RISE THROUGH THE DAY, SATURDAY. LOOK FOR READINGS PEAKING IN THE
MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA - DEALING A DEATH BLOW TO MOST OF THE
REMAINING SNOW - THOUGH UPPER 30S MAY BE ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-64 CAN MANAGE.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADJUSTING THE TEMPERATURES FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT. DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM THE NEAR ZERO
POPS FROM THE NBM AS SOME SMALL POSITIVE VALUES JUST START TO
ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS OF LATE. FORECAST GUIDANCE GENERALLY RESOLVES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WILL INTERRUPT
THESE RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS. THE FIRST SYSTEM, AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER, IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY, WITH BETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS, THIS SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAN THE FIRST. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS, BUT INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER SPECIFICS FOR THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM ARE FINE-TUNED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING YIELDING VALLEY LOWS IN THE TEENS AND RIDGETOP
LOWS IN THE TWENTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE 40S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES AREA-WIDE, BEFORE THE VALLEYS (RIDGES) COOL BACK
DOWN INTO THE 20S (LOW 30S) OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY, SUBTLY STRONGER SW
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO JUMP UP
INTO THE 50S. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS WILL INSULATE TEMPERATURES,
WHICH WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING OUT AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S CLIPPER
SYSTEM.
WITH LOWS NEAR 40 AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S, ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO DO SO AS RAIN. MODELS RESOLVE THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND POPS ARE HIGHER THERE AS A RESULT. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ON TUESDAY WILL BE OF MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINS, AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HIGH WILL BLOCK ACCESS TO THE BETTER GULF MOISTURE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION WILL LIMIT THE
QPF FOR TUESDAY'S QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY IN ITS WAKE. RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE MEAN FLOW IN THE COLUMN TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE RESULTANT WAA AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM AM LOWS IN
30S TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE TROUGHING
ALOFT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES. IT IS TOO SOON TO
PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING RAIN TOTALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL INVOLVE THE PASSAGE OF A WELL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING, AND A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AFTER THAT, GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW AND COLDER WEATHER. THE CPC'S 8-14
DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK GIVES CREDENCE TO THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN
FLIP; IT HIGHLIGHTS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LOCATION THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
MARCH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. AFTER AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MANY SITES DURING
THE EVENING A TEMPORARY REDUCTION BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK EAST OF I-75 WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER SUBTLE, UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE DAY, FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN, AREA-WIDE, BY MID
MORNING WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
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