228
FXUS63 KJKL 212001
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND HOLLOWS TONIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE DEEP WINTER COLD CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. STUBBORN STRATUS HAS
REMAINED TRAPPED IN NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND
HAS PLAGUED MOST OF THE AREA NORTHEAST OF US-421 THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTHWEST HAVE EXPERIENCED INCURSIONS FROM
THIS CLOUD DECK AS WELL. TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE; BUT,
THERMOMETERS HAVE LAGGED FURTHER NORTH UNDER THE CLOUD COVER,
GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE BEEN NOTED AT TIMES UNDER THE STRATUS DECK. THE LATEST ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MODIFIED ~1039 MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEPARTING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE WEST COAST.
IN BETWEEN, SHORTWAVE 500H RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE OZARKS JUST
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN KANSAS/EASTERN COLORADO.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST, ALLOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES SOUTHWESTERLY, ANTICIPATE THAT THE
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, DRY AIR MASS, AND
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE IN MANY OF
THE SHELTERED VALLEY AND HOLLOW LOCATIONS. MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE THERMAL BELT SLOPES AND RIDGES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MULTIPLE EMERGENCY MANAGERS, ANOTHER IMPACT-BASED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES WITH
LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE RECENT FLOODING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, THE THE WEAK 500H LOW CIRCULATION WILL
HAVE BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY. IT WILL FEATURE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT OTHER THAN DIMMING
THE SUNSHINE WITH SOME MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FINALLY REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S FAR SOUTHEAST. HEIGHTS REBOUND BEHIND THE
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 10S IN COLDER VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S ON
THERMAL BELT RIDGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS OF LATE. FORECAST GUIDANCE GENERALLY RESOLVES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WILL INTERRUPT
THESE RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS. THE FIRST SYSTEM, AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER, IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE SECOND ONE APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY, WITH BETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS, THIS SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAN THE FIRST. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS, BUT INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER SPECIFICS FOR THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM ARE FINE-TUNED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING YIELDING VALLEY LOWS IN THE TEENS AND RIDGETOP
LOWS IN THE TWENTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE 40S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES AREA-WIDE, BEFORE THE VALLEYS (RIDGES) COOL BACK
DOWN INTO THE 20S (LOW 30S) OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY, SUBTLY STRONGER SW
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO JUMP UP
INTO THE 50S. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS WILL INSULATE TEMPERATURES,
WHICH WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING OUT AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S CLIPPER
SYSTEM.
WITH LOWS NEAR 40 AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S, ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO DO SO AS RAIN. MODELS RESOLVE THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND POPS ARE HIGHER THERE AS A RESULT. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ON TUESDAY WILL BE OF MODIFIED PACIFIC ORIGINS, AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HIGH WILL BLOCK ACCESS TO THE BETTER GULF MOISTURE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION WILL LIMIT THE
QPF FOR TUESDAY'S QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY IN ITS WAKE. RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE MEAN FLOW IN THE COLUMN TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THE RESULTANT WAA AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM AM LOWS IN
30S TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE TROUGHING
ALOFT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES. IT IS TOO SOON TO
PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING RAIN TOTALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL INVOLVE THE PASSAGE OF A WELL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING, AND A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AFTER THAT, GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW AND COLDER WEATHER. THE CPC'S 8-14
DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK GIVES CREDENCE TO THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN
FLIP; IT HIGHLIGHTS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LOCATION THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
MARCH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
CONDITIONS WERE EITHER MVFR OR VFR AT TAF ISSUANCE. TERMINALS SJS,
JKL, AND SYM ARE UNDER AN MVFR STRATUS DECK AND, ASIDE FROM ANY
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE DECK, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THAT
CEILING WELL INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH, LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT LOZ AND SME, THOUGH BRIEF INCURSIONS OF THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INDICATED IN
TEMPO GROUPS. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE NOTED UNDER THE STRATUS
CEILING. EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ110-113-115-117>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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