649
FXUS63 KJKL 221935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
MOST PLACES FORECAST TO TOP 60 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
OUR NEXT GOOD SHOT AT RAIN (50-60% PROBABILITY), FOLLOWED BY A
MODEST DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY RETURNED TO MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON! THERMOMETERS ARE REGISTERING VALUES IN
THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S OVER THE
SOUTH AFTER BEING BELOW FREEZING SINCE LAST SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FILTERED BY FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER AT MID-
AFTERNOON IS OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BASIN AND IS ACTUALLY
GENERATING SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS IS DRY, AND NO PRECIPITATION HAS YET BEEN REPORTED, A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD BE OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TODAY'S CLOUD COVER IS DUE TO A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENT CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED, CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A TRACE
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON (IE. IN THE VICINITY OF PLACES SUCH AS WILLIAMSBURG,
MIDDLESBORO, AND HARLAN). AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY THIS
EVENING, HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RISE. A RELATIVELY THIN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK IS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHERE 850MB CAA
IS OCCURRING UNDER 700MB WAA BUT THESE CLOUDS NOT WELL CAPTURED BY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, ANTICIPATE THIS CLOUD DECK TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND FURTHER THIN/DIMINISH AS AN WEAK FORCING WANES.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO WANE TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND LINGERS
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER UPTICK IN MID-TO-HIGH CLOUD COVER BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 36F TO 46F DEGREE RANGE OUTSIDE OF BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 5 PM EST SOUTHEAST
OF AN IMAGINARY LINE FROM WHITESBURG-TO-CORBIN-TO-WHITLEY CITY.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SEASONABLY CHILLY AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 10S IN COLDER VALLEYS TO THE MID
20S ON THERMAL BELT RIDGES. ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL,
SENDING TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. A FEW
MORE CLOUDS RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE
BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S VALLEYS TO UPPER 20S RIDGES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
WHILE THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE IS INITIALLY DEFINED BY
QUIETER WEATHER AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND, TWO PASSING MID-WEEK
DISTURBANCES WILL USHER IN A COOLER, MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE MONTH. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT A BETTER-DEFINED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
AND REINTRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS, AND A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS.
THE FORECAST OPENS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVERHEAD. WHILE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM INTO
THE AREA, THE GENERAL PATTERN FAVORS EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS. THIS WILL YIELD MORNING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING ON RIDGETOPS AND IN THE 20S IN THE VALLEYS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RECOVER NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND SLID SOUTH
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS IT DOES SO, A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL INSULATE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NEAR 40 ON MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE VERY MINOR. THE
SOUTHERN POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GUIDANCE
DOES RESOLVE A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL, MODIFIED PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING
OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
DYNAMIC LIFT, SOME LIGHT RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE SET-UP, POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO LESS THAN 25% ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PARENT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE
OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE IN BOTH
NBM AND LREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S WARMER TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO A SHIFT TOWARDS SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS BY THEN, AND A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST
AT THE SAME TIME. FORECAST GUIDANCE RESOLVES A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE FIRMLY
POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN
SHOWERS, BUT A FEW FORECAST MODELS RESOLVE MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE PARENT TROUGH ALOFT
DOES NOT FAVOR SUSTAINED, ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA AT THIS MOMENT
IN TIME, BUT THIS COULD BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE TIME-LAGGED NATURE OF
THAT ENSEMBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED FASTER OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES, THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. FOR NOW, THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND THUNDER IS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN OUR FORECAST
GRIDS AS A RESULT. WE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRENDS WITH THIS COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT FOR NOW, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE
EQUALLY UNLIKELY, AND STORM TOTAL QPF IS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACTS FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE THE POST-
FROPA DROP IN TEMPERATURES. LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN ITS WAKE, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE DIGGING DOWN INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS COLD AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN VIA NW WINDS,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA
STATE LINES. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. THE UPDATED CPC 6-
10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS GIVE CREDENCE TO THIS IDEA, AND
WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE-SEASON WINTER
WEATHER AS MARCH BEGINS. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY
APPEARS LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF BROKEN
CLOUDS AT ~10K FT AGL IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE. A
LOWER BUT THINNING DECK AT ~7K FT AGL IS APPROACHING FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT THE
LOWER DECK WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO/THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, SO HAVE INCLUDED SCT
MENTION FOR NOW. ANY RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD
GRADUALLY YIELD TO MORE SUSTAINED CLEARING ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON/
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