388
FXUS63 KJKL 280520
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR
THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS FORECAST AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING, MOSTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SPARSE AND WITH LOW INTENSITY THROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE NIGHT (PROBABLY AFTER 4 AM). NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE. SOME PRECIPITATION
HAS REACHED THE GROUND THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD AND EXTENSIVE LIGHT
RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
AFFECT LOCATIONS PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY OFF THE EAST COAST, BUT A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIES UPSTREAM OVER TX, WITH A MUCH MORE
MINOR WAVE AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE, WEAK NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS WELL.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DEPARTING OFF THE EAST
COAST, AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OUR NEAR SURFACE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH LATE TODAY
AND IS VERY DRY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE ALOFT HAS BEEN CARRIED NORTH ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IS THEN BEING ADVECTED EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD
US. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES ARE INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCING SHOWERS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST,
BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE TOWARD US. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY HAVE SOME SUCCESS AT EATING INTO OUR DRIER
AIR MASS AND MAY AFFECT THE JKL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH THE
GREATEST POP IN THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPART TO OUR
NORTHEAST EARLY ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR FLOW AND
IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS DIRECTED OUT OF THE HIGH/RIDGE. THIS WILL
ALLOW OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS TO CREEP UPWARD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEAD, WEAK WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING US SOME SHOWERS, OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
(BASED ON WEAK INSTABILITY IN NAM SOUNDINGS), BUT THE POP IS ONLY
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT BY EVENING AND ALLOW FOR A BREAK DURING THE
NIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HEADS IN DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF MARCH AND THE BEGINNING
OF APRIL, WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE STATE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
TWO SUCH SYSTEMS CONVERGE INTO AN AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. IT STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALL WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW, INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
BEGINS TO TRAVEL NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS, WITH HELP FROM A BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL PICK UP IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE A LULL IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SECOND ROUND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THE THREAT FOR WINDS.
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS ARE SOME SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THAT
APPEAR PRESENT. USING A COMBINATION OF CIPS ANALOG-BASED SEVERE
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS AI-MACHINE LEARNING TOOLS AS
CONFIDENCE BUILDERS, THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. WITH OVERCAST SKIES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS WON'T BE AS LARGE, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
DAY FROM A SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE MORNING TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTRODUCE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SHAVE INTO HOW WARM THE TEMPERATURES WILL GET DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 60S, NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AREA MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS (15-30% CHANCE) ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, DIMINISHING TO UNDER A 10% CHANCE FOR
TUESDAY. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND CONTINUING TO VEER TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 30S, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SOME FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IF VALLEYS COME WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THEIR EXPECTED DEW POINTS, THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES, AND SKIES CLEAR (HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS).
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR,
AND UPPER 60S SOUTH OF IT. AFTER BRIEF CLEARING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN MONDAY NIGHT, BY 5-10 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS, AS
THE CLOUDS WILL INSULATE THE AREA FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER, BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70S EACH DAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, YET
TIMING IS STILL BEING WORKED OUT. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AT
NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WARMER, SETTLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S EACH NIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
CHANGES AND UPDATES!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE 7K-15K FT AGL RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING MORNING IN LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CUMBERLAND DRAINAGE BASIN.
WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE TO
7 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST PLACES DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
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