150
FXUS63 KJKL 282001
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY
RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR
THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH A
MIX OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SOME MAY HAVE NOTICED SOME HAZY SKIES WHEN OUT AND ABOUT TODAY,
THAT IS SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES FURTHER SOUTH IN GEORGIA, NORTH
CAROLINA AND ADJACENT STATES. THIS SMOKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
ANY MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA OTHER THAN SOME HAZY SKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
IN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION, 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME PLACES. THIS EVENING THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS
HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER WORKS IN. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE WAS
SUGGESTING LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES, PICKING UP ON THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODELED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, SOME OF THE
VALLEYS COULD COOL OFF MORE THAN WHAT THE NBM WAS SUGGESTING. THE
LOWS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S,
AND RIDGETOPS HANGING OUT AROUND 60. WORST CASE AND STILL
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE WHERE THICKER CLOUD ARRIVAL GETS
FURTHER DELAYED. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS DROPPING OFF FURTHER INTO THE 40S.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AGAIN. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SPREAD OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE AREA
LATER IN THE EVENING, AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL,
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BECOMES LIKELY CLOSER
TO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH INSULATED SKIES FROM CLOUD COVER, AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
STRENGTHENING, SOUTHWESTERLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, BUT SATURDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMA. THE RELATED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD (NEAR 60
DEGREES), BUT THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED, MODERATE-INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE WELL-ADVERTISED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATER THAT DAY. MESOSCALE TRENDS RELATED TO CLOUD COVER,
INSTABILITY RECOVERY, AND DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED AS HIGHER-RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
RESOLVE SUNDAY'S WEATHER, BUT THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT PLAY PRESENT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRESENTLY-AVAILABLE PIECES OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS BEHIND IT, AND THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ADVECT A TONGUE OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IN THE WAKE OF THE AM ACTIVITY, THE INTRUSION
OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD CREATE SOME CAPPING. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A LULL IN WARM-SECTOR ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, IF SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
EMERGE, ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER TO THE
WEST IN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY EVENING. THERE, FRONTAL FORCING IS LIKELY
TO OVERLAP WITH A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR
THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT A LINEAR STORM COMPLEX. AS THE PARENT
SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, THIS QLCS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. QUESTIONS LINGER REGARDING THE ABILITY OF THESE STORMS
TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED AS THEY PUSH FURTHER AND FURTHER INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT DEMANDS THAT WE WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2/5) SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH 8AM ON MONDAY, WITH AN
ENHANCED (3/5) BORDERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1/5) IN THE FAR EAST. SPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. THESE OUTLOOKS
GIVES CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
HIGHEST IN WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THAT STORMS
MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. WITH
REGARD TO THE SYSTEM'S HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, ANY FLOODING THAT
STEMS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH AND URBAN STREAM FLOODING EXISTS, BUT
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
FALL OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO WE ENCOURAGE READERS TO
REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS AHEAD OF TIME. BE SURE TO
HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS THAT CAN WAKE YOU UP, AS
NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE KNOWN TO INCREASE
VULNERABILITY TO IMPACTS.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE ON
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY TO INTERRUPT THE
TRADITIONAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE, AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY
TO SEE THEIR DAILY MAXTS BEFORE NOON AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY DROP FROM THE 60S INTO THE 50S AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE
WEST DURING THE DAY AND THEN TOWARDS THE NW OVERNIGHT. THE RESULTANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S, AND A FROST
IS POSSIBLE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. TUESDAY IS POISED TO BE THE DRIEST AND COOLEST DAY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 60. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER ALL
THE WAY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME, FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. TOGETHER, THIS
PATTERN SWITCH LEADS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL THIRD AND FOURTH ROUNDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SPREAD NOTABLY INCREASES FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER VARIABLES SUCH
AS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SYNOPTICS
POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO THE WARM SECTOR AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS
SPRINGTIME TROUGH DIGS INTO GREAT PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SUITE PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS, BUT MACHINE LEARNING AND HISTORICAL
ANALOG GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS ACTIVE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTER
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA, THIS IS WHERE WE WILL FOCUS OUR
ATTENTION. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A BROAD DAY 6
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, AND THE PEOPLE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE
ACCORDINGLY ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15-25 KTS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN THIS
EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page