572
FXUS63 KJKL 282350
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY
RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR
THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. A VERY LIGHT SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE FROM A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO NEAR THE KENTUCKY-VIRGINIA BORDER AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE EVENING CLOSER TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GENERALLY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN OVERALL LATER IN THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A
WINDOW OF BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
HAVE BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS,
GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT MILDER LOWS PRIMARILY IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE THERMAL BELTS AND ACROSS THE MORE
OPEN TERRAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH A
MIX OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SOME MAY HAVE NOTICED SOME HAZY SKIES WHEN OUT AND ABOUT TODAY,
THAT IS SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES FURTHER SOUTH IN GEORGIA, NORTH
CAROLINA AND ADJACENT STATES. THIS SMOKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
ANY MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA OTHER THAN SOME HAZY SKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
IN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION, 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME PLACES. THIS EVENING THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS
HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER WORKS IN. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE WAS
SUGGESTING LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES, PICKING UP ON THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODELED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, SOME OF THE
VALLEYS COULD COOL OFF MORE THAN WHAT THE NBM WAS SUGGESTING. THE
LOWS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S,
AND RIDGETOPS HANGING OUT AROUND 60. WORST CASE AND STILL
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE WHERE THICKER CLOUD ARRIVAL GETS
FURTHER DELAYED. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS DROPPING OFF FURTHER INTO THE 40S.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AGAIN. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SPREAD OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE AREA
LATER IN THE EVENING, AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN GENERAL,
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BECOMES LIKELY CLOSER
TO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH INSULATED SKIES FROM CLOUD COVER, AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM IA/NE BORDER AREA
TO NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDER AREA WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FURTHER TOT HE WEST OF
THAT WITH ANOTHER WAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT BASIN
VICINITY. UPSTREAM OF ALL THAT AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SHOULD
EXTEND FORM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA WITH EXTENSIVE SOUTHERN FLOW FROM
THE GULF INTO THE MS VALLEY AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE AHEAD OF A PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER IA WITH A WARM AND
THEN STATIONARY FRONT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT TRIALING
INTO OK AND TX AND THEN THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES INTO PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKIES.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE OVER OR DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN KY SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS LAGGING FURTHER WEST. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND THEN QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD NEAR
EASTERN KY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT LIKELY NOT CROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KY UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS OF MONDAY. MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT WITH
THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SFC WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND A BIT SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
EASTERN KY.
FOLLOWING MORNING TO MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION, A
RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH EASTWARD EXTEND INTO EASTERN
KY, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION WHILE THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT NIGHT ALSO LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO RELATIVELY STRONG, BUT
MLCAPE FOR ANY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO WORK REACHING MORE THAN
100 OR 200 J/KG DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AT THIS POINT. MUCAPE COULD REACH 100 TO 300 J/KG PER THE 12Z GFS
FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KT. NAM
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN AMONG THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND IF SOME HEATING WERE TO OCCUR EARLY ON MONDAY
BETWEEN POTENTIAL PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY IF A SLOWER SOLUTION WERE TO PLAY OUT. WHETHER
OR NOT MUCH THUNDER, ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS
REALIZED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME GUSTY SHOWERS THAT MIX DOWN SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE WITH THUNDER AND
OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES APPEARING BEST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
EASTERN KY. SOME CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE PLAYS OUT IN THE END. THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL
MEDIA POSTS.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
CROSS EASTERN KY MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO AND GRADUALLY ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AT MIDWEEK,
WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER SFC SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND TRACKS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THEN REMAIN IN
PLACE IF NOT STRENGTHEN FORM THE GULF TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EVEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AT MIDWEEK TRACKING NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE
SYSTEM ALSO PASSES BY THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY, THE TRIALING FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SAG TOWARD THE OH
RIVER/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BUT BEGIN TO BECOME STATIONARY OR
NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WILL LARGELY BE NEARER TO THE
OH RIVER IF NOT WEST AND NORTH OF THAT AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, FOLLOWING A LULL IN SHOWER CHANCES
FROM LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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