989
FXUS63 KJKL 291126
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
726 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR
THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOWERED ANY AREAS OF 15 OR GREATER POPS TO LOWER THAN 15 THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MADE MINOR EDITS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING USING THE NBM.
MANY AREAS, INCLUDING SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, HAVE REMAINED
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH FAIRLY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORTING MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE MARCH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
STOUT 850-MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING
MOISTURE NORTHWARDS AND MOISTENING THE LOWER LEVELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME.
THUS, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AT TIMES, WITH MODELS
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OR EVEN THE TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS TODAY, SO MOSTLY STUCK WITH NBM POPS.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS BETTER
INSTABILITY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER (AND POSSIBLY SEVERE)
STORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT EXTENDING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
WINDOW. SINCE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION, A
BREAKDOWN OF EACH SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING:
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS THAT HAPPENS, A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE CWA FROM THE WEST AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOME STORMS PUSHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A PRETTY DECENT
SEVERE WEATHER PROFILE. THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THE STRONGEST SIGNAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE
INSTABILITY WANING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
THE HRRR, BOTH MODELS HAVE SBCAPE OVER 500 J/KG, MUCAPE OVER 1,200
J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER 40 KTS, EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY OVER 250 M2/S2 AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR ABOVE
7.5 C/KM; THESE INDICES COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-
60S COULD CREATE A PRETTY POTENT ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THIS IS
ASSUMING THAT ANY PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DOESN'T TARNISH THE
ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE ANY ISSUES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
IF THE AREA CAN REMAIN LARGELY RAIN FREE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
DECENT SURFACE HEATING CAN BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME OF
THE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAN AND WILL PUSH SEVERE LIMITS.
THIS IS WHY THE SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 2% TO 5% RISK FOR TORNADOES, 15% TO
30% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND 15% TO 30% RISK OF HAIL WITH THE SPC
ALSO MENTIONING THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN OR
IMMENSE CLOUD COVER. A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS INTO MONDAY AS FROPA
CROSSES SPC DAYS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS, DECREASING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AND BY TIME PRECIPITATION
ENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE OVER AN INCH OF
TOTAL QPF WITH SOME AREAS SEEING ALMOST 1.50".
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND MONDAY'S
EXITING SYSTEM. ALSO, POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE DOORSTEP
OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE AREA AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN, THE SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A 15% RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY IS THAT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE
THIS BOUNDARY BEING ABANDONED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FORECAST
PWS OVER 1.50" COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. AS THIS
ABANDONED BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY, SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY, SHIFTS
EASTWARD COULD START PLACING PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A RISK FOR
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. NONETHELESS, THE WPC HAS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE. ALSO, SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO INCREASED THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MUCH MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER-70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND THEN
AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOST
TERMINALS PEAKING AT ABOUT 20 KTS IN GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS
THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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