072
FXUS63 KJKL 291928
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR
THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS GENERALLY VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S
NEARER TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT ALSO TO TWEAK POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FORTHCOMING FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOWERED ANY AREAS OF 15 OR GREATER POPS TO LOWER THAN 15 THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MADE MINOR EDITS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING USING THE NBM.
MANY AREAS, INCLUDING SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, HAVE REMAINED
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH FAIRLY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORTING MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE MARCH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY SUNDAY, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
STOUT 850-MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING
MOISTURE NORTHWARDS AND MOISTENING THE LOWER LEVELS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME.
THUS, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AT TIMES, WITH MODELS
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OR EVEN THE TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS TODAY, SO MOSTLY STUCK WITH NBM POPS.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS BETTER
INSTABILITY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER (AND POSSIBLY SEVERE)
STORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT EXTENDING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE STATE THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO A SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM,
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS PASSAGE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SOME OF WHICH
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SPC HAS PUT THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WHILE HAVING A MARGINAL
FURTHER WEST, ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BULK OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN GENERAL, THE AREA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY FROM A
SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY TO A NORTHWEST WIND LATER IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS A RESULT. A 10-20 DEGREE
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED AGAINST SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED,
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE ALLOWING FOR SOME BRIEF DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VEER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND BECOMING
EAST- NORTHEAST. IN THE MORNING, AREAS OF FROST MAY BE PRESENT,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, A LARGE SCALE
500-MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER WESTERN CONUS. FROM THIS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL LIKELY VEER, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTING IN AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE ATTACHED COLD
FRONT IS MODELED TO EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST FOR THE STATE, WITH THE SPC HAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A
15% A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS NORTH OF 30 MPH. LREF
ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN WIND GUST OF 40 MPH, WITH THE GENERAL
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE BEING 35-45 MPH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
ADDITIONALLY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY BECOMING RATHER STATIONARY OVER KENTUCKY AND SURROUNDING
STATES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONSISTENTLY MODELED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES EACH DAY, FLOODING
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH
PLACING THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS, WHICH IS WHY
THAT AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES,
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
INTO THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST INTO THE NIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY AND COULD OCCASIONALLY FALL FURTHER THROUGH THAT MORNING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7 TO 12 KTS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOST TERMINALS PEAKING AT ABOUT 20 KTS
IN GUSTS. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS TONIGHT PICKING UP A LITTLE DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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