154
FXUS63 KJKL 300526
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THE AREA AS A WHOLE WILL
BE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AFTER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE EVENING A
RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT PRESENT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME ASSOCIATED
RETURNS FROM WESTERN KY INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
UNDER A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POP
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY.
THIS HAS KEPT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DUE TO THOSE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE
REIGNED IN A BIT AND ARE PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S MOST PLACES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST TO THE MID 40S EAST.
THIS HAS KEPT THE AREA FROM BEING QUITE AS DRY AS YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEPER, BROADER WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM'S APPROACH WILL SERVE TO RAISE 5H HEIGHTS LOCALLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH QUICKENING SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THE CORE OF THE
ARRIVING TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A BETTER PUSH SOUTHEAST TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND
ENERGY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL CLUSTERS
WANES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS BUNCH A NOTCH FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. THE OVERALL RATHER SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT SUPPORTED
USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FAVOR THE NAM AND ECMWF
TIMING OF THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCORPORATING
THE NEWEST CAMS GUIDANCE INTO THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A WARM AND INCREASINGLY STORMY PATTERN
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY. INITIALLY, WE WILL SEE SOME
WEAK WAVES PASSING BY ALOFT HELPING TO ACTIVATE A FEW SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING OUT AHEAD
OF A BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE. THIS NEXT BATCH DOES MOVE IN MORE
EFFECTIVELY FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH STILL RATHER
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AMID A MILD NIGHT OF FAIRLY UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING WEST OF I-75 BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY,
BUT THE MAIN STORM CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS EASTWARD SURGING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS TO THE JKL CWA FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, IF ANY CELLS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEY WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR ORGANIZATION CONSIDERING THE WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUNDAY
PROPER ON ACCOUNT OF PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MORE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AROUND. THE SFC TROUGH, LEADING THE COLD FRONT, HAS THE
BEST SHOT AT GIVING EASTERN KENTUCKY SEVERE WEATHER LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A LEWP OR QLCS STRUCTURE DRIVEN BY A POTENTIAL COLD
POOL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT - SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE LATEST
CAMS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST UH SWATHS HOLD
TOGETHER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR BLUEGRASS AREA NORTHWEST OF I-64
SO THIS AREA MAY BE TARGETED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT MORE THAN
ELSEWHERE - OUTSIDE OF ANY DISCRETE CELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE. HAVE MOVED THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA INTO DAWN MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADJUSTING THE POPS PER CAMS TIMING AND PLACEMENT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM THE NBM FOR TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE STATE THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO A SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM,
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS PASSAGE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SOME OF WHICH
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SPC HAS PUT THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WHILE HAVING A MARGINAL
FURTHER WEST, ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BULK OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN GENERAL, THE AREA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY FROM A
SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY TO A NORTHWEST WIND LATER IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS A RESULT. A 10-20 DEGREE
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED AGAINST SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED,
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE ALLOWING FOR SOME BRIEF DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VEER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND BECOMING
EAST- NORTHEAST. IN THE MORNING, AREAS OF FROST MAY BE PRESENT,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, A LARGE SCALE
500-MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER WESTERN CONUS. FROM THIS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL LIKELY VEER, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTING IN AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE ATTACHED COLD
FRONT IS MODELED TO EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST FOR THE STATE, WITH THE SPC HAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A
15% A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS NORTH OF 30 MPH. LREF
ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN WIND GUST OF 40 MPH, WITH THE GENERAL
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE BEING 35-45 MPH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
ADDITIONALLY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY BECOMING RATHER STATIONARY OVER KENTUCKY AND SURROUNDING
STATES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONSISTENTLY MODELED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES EACH DAY, FLOODING
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH
PLACING THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS, WHICH IS WHY
THAT AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES,
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING PERIOD, THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AROUND 15Z-18Z IN THE
WEST AND 18Z-21Z IN THE EAST. MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TOWARD THE TAIL-END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 12Z,
THOUGH PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO
GENERALLY 7 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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