410
FXUS63 KJKL 300752
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THE AREA AS A WHOLE WILL
BE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS STABLE AND
THUS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MOST CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE MODES, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITHIN A LARGER QLCS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STRONG
0-1 KM SHEAR, WITH WEAKER AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTING
ABOVE 1 KM, LENDING ITSELF TO A ZERO TO LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. WITH THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVING
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DECENT 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-250 M2/S2,
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE KENTUCKY RIVER HEADWATERS AND BIG SANDY REGIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO SCENARIO WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A QLCS AND/OR IF ANY PARTS OF THE EXPECTED LINE OF
STORMS WERE TO BRIEFLY BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ALLOWING
FOR UNINTERRUPTED SURFACE INFLOW INTO ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND DAWN MONDAY AS THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST, BUT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OR TWO OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES
A LITTLER EARLIER THAN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND, WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE STATE THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE ACTIVE WEATHER DUE TO A SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM,
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL HAVE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS PASSAGE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SOME OF WHICH
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SPC HAS PUT THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WHILE HAVING A MARGINAL
FURTHER WEST, ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BULK OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN GENERAL, THE AREA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY FROM A
SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY TO A NORTHWEST WIND LATER IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS A RESULT. A 10-20 DEGREE
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED AGAINST SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED,
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE ALLOWING FOR SOME BRIEF DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VEER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND BECOMING
EAST- NORTHEAST. IN THE MORNING, AREAS OF FROST MAY BE PRESENT,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, A LARGE SCALE
500-MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER WESTERN CONUS. FROM THIS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL LIKELY VEER, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTING IN AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE ATTACHED COLD
FRONT IS MODELED TO EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST FOR THE STATE, WITH THE SPC HAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A
15% A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS NORTH OF 30 MPH. LREF
ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN WIND GUST OF 40 MPH, WITH THE GENERAL
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE BEING 35-45 MPH.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
ADDITIONALLY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY BECOMING RATHER STATIONARY OVER KENTUCKY AND SURROUNDING
STATES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONSISTENTLY MODELED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES EACH DAY, FLOODING
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH
PLACING THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS, WHICH IS WHY
THAT AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES,
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING PERIOD, THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AROUND 15Z-18Z IN THE
WEST AND 18Z-21Z IN THE EAST. MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TOWARD THE TAIL-END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 12Z,
THOUGH PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO
GENERALLY 7 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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