734
FXUS63 KJKL 300810
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THE AREA AS A WHOLE WILL
BE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS STABLE AND
THUS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MOST CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE MODES, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITHIN A LARGER QLCS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STRONG
0-1 KM SHEAR, WITH WEAKER AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTING
ABOVE 1 KM, LENDING ITSELF TO A ZERO TO LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. WITH THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVING
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DECENT 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-250 M2/S2,
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE KENTUCKY RIVER HEADWATERS AND BIG SANDY REGIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO SCENARIO WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A QLCS AND/OR IF ANY PARTS OF THE EXPECTED LINE OF
STORMS WERE TO BRIEFLY BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ALLOWING
FOR UNINTERRUPTED SURFACE INFLOW INTO ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND DAWN MONDAY AS THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST, BUT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OR TWO OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES
A LITTLER EARLIER THAN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND, WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
WINDOW. HOWEVER, BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP FOR MID-WEEK; SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND MONDAY'S EXITING SYSTEM AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS POST-
FRONTAL CAA WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, COUPLED WITH CAA AND CLEARING
SKIES, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE AREA AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS
APPROACHING BOUNDARY IS THAT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS
BOUNDARY BEING ABANDONED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WITH FORECAST
PWS OVER 1.50", THIS COMBINATION COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. AS THIS ABANDONED BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY, SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY PROVIDING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT AS THE PARENT LOW, RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE COLD FRONT, SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
ORIENTED EAST/WEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A POSITION WHERE AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD START PLACING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA IN A RISK FOR HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. THE WPC HAS THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT AS THAT BOUNDARY STARTS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE WPC INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK TO MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE. ALSO, SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO INCREASED THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD
WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER-70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND THROUGH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING PERIOD, THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING AROUND 15Z-18Z IN THE
WEST AND 18Z-21Z IN THE EAST. MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TOWARD THE TAIL-END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 12Z,
THOUGH PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO
GENERALLY 7 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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