175
FXUS63 KJKL 301915
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR THE AREA AS A WHOLE WILL
BE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL
EXTENDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/POP
GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SLIPPING CLOSER TO KENTUCKY
WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. DESPITE
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THESE WINDS ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND INCREASING MOISTURE. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST PLACES.
MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY - PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR STORMS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AREA - FAVORING THE NORTHEAST PARTS AT THE MOMENT - BUT THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF DEVELOPING
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD
GRIDS ALONG WITH INCORPORATING THE CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING/COVERAGE INTO THE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH AN
AFTERNOON FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND SAFS TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TWEAKED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MOST
RECENT NBM AND CONSHORT. OTHERWISE, CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.
UTILIZED THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS TO INITIALIZE
THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS STABLE AND
THUS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
BY THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MOST CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE MODES, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITHIN A LARGER QLCS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STRONG
0-1 KM SHEAR, WITH WEAKER AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTING
ABOVE 1 KM, LENDING ITSELF TO A ZERO TO LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. WITH THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVING
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DECENT 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-250 M2/S2,
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE KENTUCKY RIVER HEADWATERS AND BIG SANDY REGIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO SCENARIO WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A QLCS AND/OR IF ANY PARTS OF THE EXPECTED LINE OF
STORMS WERE TO BRIEFLY BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ALLOWING
FOR UNINTERRUPTED SURFACE INFLOW INTO ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AROUND DAWN MONDAY AS THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST, BUT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OR TWO OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES
A LITTLER EARLIER THAN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND, WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TUESDAY MORNING, PATCHY FROST MAY BE PRESENT MAINLY WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UP UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. DURING THE DAY, A LARGE SCALE 500-MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. FROM THIS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTING IN AND TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF OFF AND
ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
DOWN THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR THE STATE, WITH THE SPC HAVING
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A 15% A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LREF 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO HAVE MEAN
WIND GUST OF 40 MPH, WITH THE GENERAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE BEING 35-45 MPH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THREAT.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
BECOMING RATHER STATIONARY OVER KENTUCKY AND SURROUNDING STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONSISTENTLY MODELED
BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES EACH DAY, FLOODING COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH PLACING A PORTION OF THE
AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR THURSDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE
LACK OF A PROGRESSING FRONT AND PERSISTENT RAIN, THE WPC HAS PUT THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK AND MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS, WHICH IS WHY
THAT AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES,
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES THE LEE SIDE
OF A RIDGE, INTO THE DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS. WHILE BEING
SLOW TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM, IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE WHAT MOVES THE
STATIONARY FRONT AWAY FROM THE STATE, LATER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WITH
WINDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO VEER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FROM A
SOUTHWEST WIND TO A NORTHWEST WIND, COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY TEMPER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, RISING INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 60S GOING
NORTH TO SOUTH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO START THE
CYCLE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS OF INCREASING INTENSITY,
AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING AND 06Z MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE REDUCTIONS TO IFR
CONDITIONS OR LOWER FOR CIGS, AND BRIEFLY, VISIBILITY. LOW CIGS
AND DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES CONTINUE FROM SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR SO TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING -
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER AND
MORE ERRATIC WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH SUSTAINED NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY, MONDAY, AND SWITCH WIND DIRECTION TO THE
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TIMES OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS WELL, BUT THE SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY AS
PREVAILING IN THE TAFS, AT THIS TIME.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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