843
FXUS63 KJKL 010804
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TODAY,
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A PERSISTENT STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THOSE SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AREA IS NOW IN A FLOOD
WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
CLOUDY, CHILLY, AND RATHER DAMP CONDITIONS LINGER OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THERMOMETERS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WHILE NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE TO BLOW AT AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS
IN SPOTS. (WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER AT SOME OF THE TYPICALLY MORE
WINDY SPOTS). PATCHY DRIZZLE, EVIDENT FROM RADAR AND OCCASIONALLY
PICKED UP BY SURFACE BASED OBSERVATIONS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT
THROUGH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS SURFACE RIDGING IS
SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORED ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF A
500H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. FURTHER UPSTREAM, TROUGHING IS AMPLIFYING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS A HOWLING 180+ KT 250 MB PACIFIC
JET STREAK DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, AN ~996 MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES (JUST NORTH OF GRAND JUNCTION, CO).
THE LOW DESCENDS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND
DEEPENS TO AROUND ~985 MB OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SUPPORTED BY A PIECE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AS THE
SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET CONSOLIDATES, A WARM FRONT WILL
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM'S ROBUST
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AT THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH 850 MB FLOW
ACCELERATING TO NEAR 50KTS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST, BUFKIT MIXED-
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTS SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT
RANGE, STRONGEST OVER AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. WITH
TIME, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE VA/KY
BORDER UP TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR/WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT (90
TO 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY) BY 00Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND A CAP AT AROUND 700-800MB SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE CAP APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER.
FROM A MORE SENSIBLE PERSPECTIVE, ANY LEFTOVER DRIZZLE EXITS
SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HANG ON UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, CEASING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
REPLACING IT WITH A DRYING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
START THE DAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40 BUT QUICKLY REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
INCREASING SUNSHINE. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY, GENERALLY HOLDING IN
THE 30S. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES INITIALLY THROUGH THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ANTICIPATE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 40S (THROUGH SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS/HOLLOWS) TO MID 50S
(ON THERMAL BELT SLOPES/RIDGES AND OPEN COUNTRYSIDE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT) WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE NIGHT BEFORE
THERMOMETERS HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AND THICKEN AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCALES AND MID 80S AT THE WARMEST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH,
STRONGEST OVER AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL A SMALL CHANCE (20-30 POP)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES (FLEMING, ROWAN, MONTGOMERY, POWELL, ESTILL) AND ALSO
INTO THOSE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S, IN THE FAR EAST,
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, ALONG/WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT, BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST DESPITE A CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLIER PATTERN SETTING
UP. THEY ALL DEPICT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AT 5H PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY TO START THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A LARGE
NEGATIVE ANOMALY DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING INTO FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH STRONG RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS RATHER EXTREME
PATTERN HELPS TO LOCK IN FAIRLY FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS
AND AN 850H STREAM ABLE TO TAP INTO A WIDE OPEN WESTERN GULF.
ACCORDINGLY, PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE NEARING
OR EXCEEDING A CLIMATE MAX FOR MUCH OF THE REGION - ESPECIALLY TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. ALTHOUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL FACE SOME
IMPACT FROM THIS SET UP THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR LOCATIONS TO
THE WEST AND NEARER THE OHIO RIVER AS THE INGREDIENTS ALOFT SET UP
A PERSISTENT TREND FOR MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT AND RENEWED
DYNAMICS THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY THE
CORE OF THE SOUTHWEST 5H LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS BY SUNDAY ENDING THE WORST OF THE THREAT FOR OUR
AREA WITH TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW CLOSING OUT THE
PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RATHER SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS
THE MAIN INPUT TO THE THE FORECAST GRIDS. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND ALSO TO BEEF UP THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A START TO THE LONG TERM SIMILAR TO THE
EVENT THAT JUST WENT THROUGH THE REGION LAST EVENING. A DEEP SFC
LOW WILL RACE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSH ITS COLD
FRONT EAST INTO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS. THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN WITH THE BIGGER PUSH APPEARING TO COME AFTER
MIDNIGHT - LESSENING THE INSTABILITY BUT NOT THE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS THAT BROUGHT US MUCH OF THE
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF LAST NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, EASTERN KENTUCKY
IS AGAIN ON THE FRINGES OF AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING THREAT INDICATED INTO THE
DAY, THURSDAY. ABOUT THIS TIME, THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MAY BE
PRIMED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL - ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHWEST
HALF. THIS IS PERTINENT AS MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STALL THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA - JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH
SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE
CONCERNS FOLLOWING INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EXTREME EVENT THAT WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF, AN EXTENDED
FLOOD WATCH (THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE JKL CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION SOUTHEAST
SHOULD THE THREAT TREND THAT WAY.
OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH VERY MILD NIGHTS. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER AND
SFC PATTERNS BECOME UNSTUCK AND WE SEE A CHANGE IN AIR MASS.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
LOWERING DEWPOINTS A TAD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEEFING UP
THE WINDS. ADJUSTED THE POPS MAINLY FOR PEAK THREAT TIMING AT AN
HOURLY RESOLUTION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-
112-114.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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