441
FXUS63 KJKL 011147
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY, TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A PERSISTENT STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THOSE SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AREA IS NOW IN A FLOOD
WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING AREA-WIDE AS LAST VESTIGES OF
DRIZZLE DEPART FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. REFINED SKY COVER TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS; OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
CLOUDY, CHILLY, AND RATHER DAMP CONDITIONS LINGER OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THERMOMETERS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WHILE NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE TO BLOW AT AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS
IN SPOTS. (WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER AT SOME OF THE TYPICALLY MORE
WINDY SPOTS). PATCHY DRIZZLE, EVIDENT FROM RADAR AND OCCASIONALLY
PICKED UP BY SURFACE BASED OBSERVATIONS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT
THROUGH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS SURFACE RIDGING IS
SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORED ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF A
500H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. FURTHER UPSTREAM, TROUGHING IS AMPLIFYING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS A HOWLING 180+ KT 250 MB PACIFIC
JET STREAK DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, AN ~996 MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES (JUST NORTH OF GRAND JUNCTION, CO).
THE LOW DESCENDS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND
DEEPENS TO AROUND ~985 MB OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SUPPORTED BY A PIECE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AS THE
SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET CONSOLIDATES, A WARM FRONT WILL
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM'S ROBUST
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AT THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH 850 MB FLOW
ACCELERATING TO NEAR 50KTS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST, BUFKIT MIXED-
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTS SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT
RANGE, STRONGEST OVER AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. WITH
TIME, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE VA/KY
BORDER UP TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR/WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT (90
TO 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY) BY 00Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND A CAP AT AROUND 700-800MB SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE CAP APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER.
FROM A MORE SENSIBLE PERSPECTIVE, ANY LEFTOVER DRIZZLE EXITS
SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HANG ON UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, CEASING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
REPLACING IT WITH A DRYING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
START THE DAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40 BUT QUICKLY REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
INCREASING SUNSHINE. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY, GENERALLY HOLDING IN
THE 30S. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES INITIALLY THROUGH THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ANTICIPATE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 40S (THROUGH SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS/HOLLOWS) TO MID 50S
(ON THERMAL BELT SLOPES/RIDGES AND OPEN COUNTRYSIDE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT) WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE NIGHT BEFORE
THERMOMETERS HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AND THICKEN AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCALES AND MID 80S AT THE WARMEST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH,
STRONGEST OVER AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL A SMALL CHANCE (20-30 POP)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES (FLEMING, ROWAN, MONTGOMERY, POWELL, ESTILL) AND ALSO
INTO THOSE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S, IN THE FAR EAST,
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, ALONG/WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT, BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE REGIME
OF THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW FOR THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROM THE OCCLUSION, THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION.
LOCALLY, FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND START TO SAG INTO THE CWA LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE SPC HAS THE AREA
UNDER THE A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
BUT A SPIN-UP TORNADO OR INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ARE
FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SBCAPE
AND MUCAPE ARE UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER 60
KTS, ESRH OVER 400 M2/S2 AND PWS OVER 1.30". LASTLY, LOW AND MIDDLE
LAPSE RATES AREN'T HORRIBLE AT 6.0 TO 7.0 C/KM. HOWEVER, AS WITH
RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS, THE THREAT IS PREDICATED ON THE
ABILITY TO STAY LARGELY CLOUD AND RAIN-FREE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE FORCING ABANDONS
THE BOUNDARY AND A SW TO NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
OF BAROCLINICITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL PAVE THE WAY TO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY BUT AS THIS BOUNDARY WAVERS,
INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE JKL
CWA. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA ARE THE HIGHEST
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY WITH
DECREASING TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT IN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS
THE CWA. AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL, THE
WPC HAS THAT HIGHLIGHTED AREA, MENTIONED ABOVE, IN A DAY 3
(WEDNESDAY) SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK, A DAY 4 (THURSDAY) MARGINAL
RISK AND A DAY 5 (FRIDAY) SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC THREATS, THE
SPC HAS A DAY 3 (THURSDAY) SLIGHT RISK FOR THE COLD FRONT/SOON-TO-BE
STALLED BOUNDARY.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN
TEXAS AND EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING DECREASING POP CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO LIFT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND,
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LASTLY, WITH CAA AND CLEARING SKIES, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT COULD BE SEVERE WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
ALSO, SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO INCREASED THREATS
FOR WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FINALLY, THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS
DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER-70S TO
MID-80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S BEFORE A COLD
FRONT USHERS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AT TAF ISSUANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH THEY WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY
TODAY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AT
AROUND 4 TO 9 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-
112-114.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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