333
FXUS63 KJKL 012120
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
520 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY, TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST NORTHWEST PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND
THEN AGAIN POTENTIALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WE ARE LOOKING FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY - ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THOSE
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AREA REMAINS IN A FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DRYING UP NOW (FINALLY). HOWEVER, THE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES PERSISTS, WITH READINGS HELD DOWN BY LACK OF SUN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND WELL, BUT THE MAX HAS BEEN TRIMMED
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE ARRIVAL OF SUNSHINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING ON GREATER THAN WAS FORECAST, AND SKY COVER
HAS BEEN INCREASED LONGER INTO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK UP, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS LOST
AND EVEN BEGINS TO TAKE ON A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. TIMING CONTINUES
TO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING AREA-WIDE AS LAST VESTIGES OF
DRIZZLE DEPART FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. REFINED SKY COVER TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS; OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
CLOUDY, CHILLY, AND RATHER DAMP CONDITIONS LINGER OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THERMOMETERS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WHILE NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE TO BLOW AT AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS
IN SPOTS. (WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER AT SOME OF THE TYPICALLY MORE
WINDY SPOTS). PATCHY DRIZZLE, EVIDENT FROM RADAR AND OCCASIONALLY
PICKED UP BY SURFACE BASED OBSERVATIONS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT
THROUGH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR AREA IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS SURFACE RIDGING IS
SITUATED UNDER THE FAVORED ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST OF A
500H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. FURTHER UPSTREAM, TROUGHING IS AMPLIFYING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS A HOWLING 180+ KT 250 MB PACIFIC
JET STREAK DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, AN ~996 MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES (JUST NORTH OF GRAND JUNCTION, CO).
THE LOW DESCENDS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND
DEEPENS TO AROUND ~985 MB OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, SUPPORTED BY A PIECE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AS THE
SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET CONSOLIDATES, A WARM FRONT WILL
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM'S ROBUST
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AT THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH 850 MB FLOW
ACCELERATING TO NEAR 50KTS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST, BUFKIT MIXED-
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTS SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT
RANGE, STRONGEST OVER AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. WITH
TIME, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE VA/KY
BORDER UP TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR/WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT (90
TO 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY) BY 00Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND A CAP AT AROUND 700-800MB SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE CAP APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER.
FROM A MORE SENSIBLE PERSPECTIVE, ANY LEFTOVER DRIZZLE EXITS
SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HANG ON UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, CEASING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
REPLACING IT WITH A DRYING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
START THE DAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40 BUT QUICKLY REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
INCREASING SUNSHINE. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY, GENERALLY HOLDING IN
THE 30S. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES INITIALLY THROUGH THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT BEFORE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ANTICIPATE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 40S (THROUGH SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS/HOLLOWS) TO MID 50S
(ON THERMAL BELT SLOPES/RIDGES AND OPEN COUNTRYSIDE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT) WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE NIGHT BEFORE
THERMOMETERS HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD AND THICKEN AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCALES AND MID 80S AT THE WARMEST SPOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH,
STRONGEST OVER AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL A SMALL CHANCE (20-30 POP)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER OUR BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES (FLEMING, ROWAN, MONTGOMERY, POWELL, ESTILL) AND ALSO
INTO THOSE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S, IN THE FAR EAST,
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, ALONG/WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT, BY THE
END OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE START TO CROP UP IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH OPENING UP. THEY ALL DEPICT
THAT DEEP SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH ANCHORING THE 5H PATTERN -
INCREDIBLY - ALL THE WAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE STRONG RIDGING
STAYS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
LOCK IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
SCOURING MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM A WIDE OPEN WESTERN GULF OF
AMERICA FOR A NEAR CONTINUOUS FLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WITHIN THE FLOW, SEVERAL IMPULSES OF CONCERN WILL RIDE PAST
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONES OF THESE
WILL BE PASSING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER, WEAKER ONE, LATER THAT NIGHT BEFORE A THIRD ONE PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY EARLY SUNDAY A SUBSTANTIAL
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH FINALLY WORKS EAST INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HELPING TO SHOVE THE BLOCKING SOUTHEAST
RIDGE FURTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY. THIS PROCESS ALSO PULLS A LARGE
TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA SENDING 5H HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE. WITH THE PATTERN FINALLY ON THE
MOVE, A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PRESS SOUTH INTO THE JKL CWA LATER MONDAY. THIS ENERGY SWATH WILL
LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE LARGE NORTHERN
TROUGH'S AXIS WILL FINALLY SWEEP EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY -
STRONGER AND MORE DEFINITIVELY IN THE ECMWF CLUSTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS WILL TURN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST
BRINGING A PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING.
THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY SUPPORTED USING THE
NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS THEN MORE
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TOWARD THE ECMWF'S CLUSTER SOLUTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY
TO ADD MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A TALE OF TWO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE GUN FOR PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE RAINS AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WHILE THE SOUTHEAST AVOIDS MUCH OF THE WEATHER
AND STAYS QUITE WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL LEAVE A
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF, OR A BIT INTO, THE JKL
CWA AND SERVE TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION THREAT - THOUGH MOST
PROBABLY WE WILL SEE A FADE OUT OF THE INITIAL STRONGER AND
HEAVIER CONVECTION INTO THE MORNING. THEN, PERHAPS A THE BOUNDARY
HELPS TO IGNITE MORE CONVECTION LATER THAT AFTERNOON FOR MORE
SHOWER AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY, WARMTH AND SFC MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND A
FAVORABLE WIND FIELD FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITHOUT MUCH DYNAMICS
ALOFT APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SOUTHEAST OF I-64. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY RENEWS THE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOR AGAIN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
THIRD MID-LEVEL WAVE THEN APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF RENEWED AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION - STILL FAVORING THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THIS THIRD WAVE HELPS LIFT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH AND MAY
SPARE MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE HEAVY CONVECTION FOR LATER
FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM BODILY MOVING BACK
INTO THE REST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ONCE THIS LAST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
HAVE ENDED FOR THE AREA. THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW
ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AND SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THE EXTREMENESS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL RARENESS OF THIS
STALLED PATTERN, MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO MISS OUT
OF THE HIGHER IMPACTS OWING TO THE HEAVIEST RAINS FORECASTED TO
STAY NORTH OF THE HEADWATERS OF OUR RIVERS. EVEN SO, WE NEED TO
STAY VIGILANT FOR A POSSIBLE SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE HEAVY RAIN
AXIS AND NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. HOWEVER, AS IT STANDS NOW, IT
SEEMS INCREASING LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
CONFLUENCE REGION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WILL SEE THE
HISTORIC IMPACTS FROM THE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS OF SUCH EXTREME
DURATIONS WHILE MANY OF US HERE, ESPECIALLY THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE
FLOOD WATCH, MOSTLY NOTE JUST AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR EARLY APRIL INTERRUPTED OCCASIONALLY BY A BOUT OF
MOSTLY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADJUSTING THE POPS FOR ECMWF TIMING LATER IN THE PERIOD AND ADDING
IN HOURLY TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE MORE TERRAIN
DISTINCTION TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LINGERED OVER EXTREME EASTERN KY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, BUT THEY ARE QUICKLY DRYING UP AND WILL BE GONE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CRANK UP OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE UNTIL MIXING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONCE MIXING OCCURS, WE CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-
112-114.
UPDATE...HAL/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL
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