748
FXUS63 KJKL 022152
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
552 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST NORTHWEST PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE FAVORED TO SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT, WITH BETTER
CHANCES OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WE ARE LOOKING FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY -
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BETWEEN 3
AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THOSE SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS AREA REMAINS IN A FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVED TODAY ON STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM IL SOUTHWEST THROUGH AR, AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE, MANY ARE SEVERE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE JKL FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A LINE. THEY WILL BE
OUTRUNNING THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST, AND OUR REMAINING
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, BEING THAT
AN ORGANIZED LINE IS EXPECTED AND WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG,
THERE IS STILL A SEVERE WX THREAT HERE, MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND.
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LINE SHOULD STALL OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY
WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY CONVECTION, WHICH LEAVES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS ARE THEN INDICATING NOCTURNAL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY NIGHT, RUNNING OFF OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. WHILE FLOODING ISSUES CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ACTIVITY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD TRAINING/REPEATING CELLS OCCUR, MUCH
OF THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP COULD GO INTO SATURATING THE GROUND
TO SET US UP FOR LATER PROBLEMS. IN TERMS OF LATER PRECIP, THE
NAM AND GFS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT FOCUS IT MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. THE HRRR HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS SAID, THERE IS NOT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST BEFORE SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE START TO SHOW UP
CONCERNING A LATE PERIOD TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM
THE NORTH. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH ANCHORING
THE 5H PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY SLOWLY GRINDING
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STAGNANT PATTERN ALOFT FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOCKING IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL BE ABLE TO SCOUR AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM A WIDE
OPEN WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA FOR A NEAR CONTINUOUS FLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITHIN THE FLOW, SEVERAL IMPULSES OF
CONCERN WILL RIDE PAST EASTERN KENTUCKY. ONE OF THESE, IN A SERIES
OF THEM, PASSES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTH THAT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE A THIRD THEN
CROSSES TOWARDS THAT EVENING. BY EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH, A
SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH FINALLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HELPING TO SHOVE THE BLOCKING
SOUTHEAST RIDGE FURTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PATTERN TO START MOVING AGAIN FOR OUR AREA AND ALSO HELPS TO PULL
A LARGE TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA SENDING 5H HEIGHT
FALLS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY, SUNDAY. THEN,
WITH THE PATTERN FINALLY ON THE MOVE, A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL
SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRESS SOUTH INTO THE JKL CWA LATER
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY SWATH LINGERS OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE THE LARGE NORTHERN TROUGH'S AXIS AT 5H WILL FINALLY SWEEP
EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY - NOW FASTER AND MORE DAMPENED IN THE
ECMWF CLUSTER COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS CHANGE WILL TURN
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A
PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DRYING AND COLDER CONDITIONS.
THE STILL RATHER SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY
SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST
GRIDS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN HAVE DECIDED TO USED IT SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STILL SHIFTING CLUSTER SOLUTIONS OF THE
VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODEL SYSTEMS INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AGAIN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO ADD MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION
TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A WARM END TO THE WEEK FOR MOST WITH
THE MODELS NOW DEPICTING THE CONCERNING BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE JKL CWA TO START THE DAY, FRIDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
SFC WAVE CONSOLIDATES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. THIS PROCESS
LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPARE MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE HEAVY RAINS
AND STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY WILL START TO RETURN SOUTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY WITH MORE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARRIVING, FOR
AT LEAST NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EVENING, WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO STAY DRY AND VERY WARM. THE CAVEAT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING IS THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY STAYS WEST AND NORTH OF THE BULK OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY, MESOSCALE DYNAMICS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD HELP TO
PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS INDICATE SO CAUTION IS
URGED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREAS. EVENTUALLY, THIS
SYSTEM AND THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FINAL INCIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE
IT DEPARTS. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF TRENDS HOLDS IN HAVING A
LINGERING SFC WAVE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND HOLDING IT
UP BY PERHAPS ANOTHER 12 HOURS.
SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO MONDAY AND
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN AIR
MASS CHANGE ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COLDEST AIR IS INDICATED TO
ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SUCH THAT SCATTERED FROST AND
SOME SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY
BUT SERVE TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND COOL.
DESPITE THE EXTREMENESS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL RARENESS OF THIS
STALLED PATTERN, MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO MISS OUT
OF THE HIGHER IMPACTS OWING TO THE HEAVIEST RAINS FORECASTED TO
STAY NORTH OF THE HEADWATERS OF OUR RIVERS. EVEN SO, WE NEED TO
STAY VIGILANT FOR A POSSIBLE SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE HEAVY RAIN
AXIS AND NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. HOWEVER, AS IT STANDS NOW, IT
SEEMS INCREASING LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
CONFLUENCE REGION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WILL SEE THE
HISTORIC IMPACTS FROM THE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS OF SUCH EXTREME
DURATIONS. MEANWHILE MANY OF US HERE, ESPECIALLY THOSE OUTSIDE OF
THE FLOOD WATCH, WILL MOSTLY NOTE JUST AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR EARLY APRIL INTERRUPTED OCCASIONALLY BY A
BOUT OF MAINLY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADJUSTING THE POPS FOR HOURLY TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. DID ALSO
INCLUDE MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS IN MANY PLACES. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT GOING INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL NOT DIE DOWN AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE. GUSTS TOPPING 20 KTS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGH WINDS WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WON'T RULE
OUT IFR CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN TAFS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-106-108-111.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-
112-114.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL
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