525  
FXUS63 KJKL 030120 AAA  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
920 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- AT LEAST NORTHWEST PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE FAVORED TO SEE  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT, WITH BETTER  
CHANCES OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
- WE ARE LOOKING FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY -  
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BETWEEN 3  
AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THOSE SEVERAL DAYS.  
THIS AREA REMAINS IN A FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND  
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOL DOWN TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DYNAMIC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE WORKING ITS WAY EAST  
TO THE EDGE OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING AN INCREDIBLE  
AMOUNT OF TORNADO WARNINGS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT PART  
OF THE AREA WHICH SPC HAS OUTLOOKED WITH A RARE HIGH RISK  
OUTLOOK. THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ON TRACK TO ENTER  
INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE TOWARDS, OR JUST AFTER, MIDNIGHT  
LIKELY WEAKER BUT STILL PACKING A PUNCH MAINLY IN THE FORM OF  
HIGH WIND GUSTS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT  
AND TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS AND RADAR EXTRAPOLATION. OUT  
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS, SOME DISCRETE CELLS HAVE  
BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND  
ARE ALSO EDGING CLOSER TO THE JKL CWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY A  
TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF US TO COVER THIS  
THREAT AS WELL AS THE ANTICIPATED QLCS LATER TONIGHT. WE AND SPC  
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR  
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL EASTERN OR NORTHEASTERN CONVECTIVE WATCHES.  
FOR NOW, THE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS SOME  
MODEST CAPE AND A DECENT WIND FIELD BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW  
LEVEL TURNING, YET, AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP BUT WE WILL STILL NEED  
TO CLOSELY WATCH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.  
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE QUITE WARM IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO, AMID SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15  
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH, DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER  
60S SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST. IN ADDITION TO  
TIMING THE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HAVE UPDATED THE  
FORECAST TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY  
GRIDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB  
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND SAFS WITH  
THE DROPPING OF THE WIND ADVISORY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVED TODAY ON STRONG SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
OCCURRING FROM IL SOUTHWEST THROUGH AR, AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD  
FRONT. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE, MANY ARE SEVERE. THE  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE JKL FORECAST  
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A LINE. THEY WILL BE  
OUTRUNNING THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST, AND OUR REMAINING  
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, BEING THAT  
AN ORGANIZED LINE IS EXPECTED AND WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG,  
THERE IS STILL A SEVERE WX THREAT HERE, MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND.  
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LINE SHOULD STALL OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY,  
ALONG WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS  
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT. THE EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY  
WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF  
THE EARLY CONVECTION, WHICH LEAVES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.  
MODELS ARE THEN INDICATING NOCTURNAL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY NIGHT, RUNNING OFF OF ISENTROPIC  
LIFT. WHILE FLOODING ISSUES CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ACTIVITY  
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD TRAINING/REPEATING CELLS OCCUR, MUCH  
OF THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP COULD GO INTO SATURATING THE GROUND  
TO SET US UP FOR LATER PROBLEMS. IN TERMS OF LATER PRECIP, THE  
NAM AND GFS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT FOCUS IT MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. THE HRRR HAS  
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS SAID, THERE IS NOT HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN  
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG  
TERM FORECAST BEFORE SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE START TO SHOW UP  
CONCERNING A LATE PERIOD TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM  
THE NORTH. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH ANCHORING  
THE 5H PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY SLOWLY GRINDING  
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG RIDGE HOLDS FIRM IN THE  
SOUTHEAST. THIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STAGNANT PATTERN ALOFT FOR  
MOST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND LOCKING IN  
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO KENTUCKY.  
THIS WILL BE ABLE TO SCOUR AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM A WIDE  
OPEN WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA FOR A NEAR CONTINUOUS FLUX OF  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITHIN THE FLOW, SEVERAL IMPULSES OF  
CONCERN WILL RIDE PAST EASTERN KENTUCKY. ONE OF THESE, IN A SERIES  
OF THEM, PASSES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SLIDES BY TO  
THE NORTH THAT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE A THIRD THEN  
CROSSES TOWARDS THAT EVENING. BY EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH, A  
SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH FINALLY WORKS  
EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HELPING TO SHOVE THE BLOCKING  
SOUTHEAST RIDGE FURTHER AWAY FROM KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE  
PATTERN TO START MOVING AGAIN FOR OUR AREA AND ALSO HELPS TO PULL  
A LARGE TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA SENDING 5H HEIGHT  
FALLS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY, SUNDAY. THEN,  
WITH THE PATTERN FINALLY ON THE MOVE, A STREAM OF ENERGY WILL  
SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRESS SOUTH INTO THE JKL CWA LATER  
MONDAY. THIS ENERGY SWATH LINGERS OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY  
BEFORE THE LARGE NORTHERN TROUGH'S AXIS AT 5H WILL FINALLY SWEEP  
EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY - NOW FASTER AND MORE DAMPENED IN THE  
ECMWF CLUSTER COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS CHANGE WILL TURN  
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A  
PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DRYING AND COLDER CONDITIONS.  
 
THE STILL RATHER SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY  
SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST  
GRIDS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN HAVE DECIDED TO USED IT SPLIT THE  
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STILL SHIFTING CLUSTER SOLUTIONS OF THE  
VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODEL SYSTEMS INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
AGAIN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO ADD MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION  
TO THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A WARM END TO THE WEEK FOR MOST WITH  
THE MODELS NOW DEPICTING THE CONCERNING BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE JKL CWA TO START THE DAY, FRIDAY. MODEL  
CONSENSUS HAS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT  
SFC WAVE CONSOLIDATES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. THIS PROCESS  
LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPARE MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THE HEAVY RAINS  
AND STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY WILL START TO RETURN SOUTHEAST LATER  
SATURDAY WITH MORE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARRIVING, FOR  
AT LEAST NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EVENING, WHILE THE  
SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO STAY DRY AND VERY WARM. THE CAVEAT THROUGH  
SATURDAY EVENING IS THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT  
THAT THE BOUNDARY STAYS WEST AND NORTH OF THE BULK OF SOUTHEAST  
KENTUCKY, MESOSCALE DYNAMICS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD HELP TO  
PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS INDICATE SO CAUTION IS  
URGED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREAS. EVENTUALLY, THIS  
SYSTEM AND THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA  
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FINAL INCIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE  
IT DEPARTS. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLOOD  
WATCH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF TRENDS HOLDS IN HAVING A  
LINGERING SFC WAVE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND HOLDING IT  
UP BY PERHAPS ANOTHER 12 HOURS.  
 
SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO MONDAY AND  
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN AIR  
MASS CHANGE ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COLDEST AIR IS INDICATED TO  
ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SUCH THAT SCATTERED FROST AND  
SOME SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE  
WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY  
BUT SERVE TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND COOL.  
 
DESPITE THE EXTREMENESS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL RARENESS OF THIS  
STALLED PATTERN, MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO MISS OUT  
OF THE HIGHER IMPACTS OWING TO THE HEAVIEST RAINS FORECASTED TO  
STAY NORTH OF THE HEADWATERS OF OUR RIVERS. EVEN SO, WE NEED TO  
STAY VIGILANT FOR A POSSIBLE SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE HEAVY RAIN  
AXIS AND NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. HOWEVER, AS IT STANDS NOW, IT  
SEEMS INCREASING LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND  
CONFLUENCE REGION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WILL SEE THE  
HISTORIC IMPACTS FROM THE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS OF SUCH EXTREME  
DURATIONS. MEANWHILE MANY OF US HERE, ESPECIALLY THOSE OUTSIDE OF  
THE FLOOD WATCH, WILL MOSTLY NOTE JUST AN UNSEASONABLY WARM  
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR EARLY APRIL INTERRUPTED OCCASIONALLY BY A  
BOUT OF MAINLY NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF  
ADJUSTING THE POPS FOR HOURLY TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. DID ALSO  
INCLUDE MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
THE STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT  
THIS EVENING BUT STILL ARE OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS OR SO.  
EVEN AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT LOOK FOR GUSTS TOPPING 20  
KTS TO STILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN TERRAIN. IN ADDITION  
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE SFC RESULTING IN LLWS OF UP TO  
45 KTS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. ALSO, HIGH SFC WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST  
OVERNIGHT, BUT TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A RISK  
FOR HIGH WINDS WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS, AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY  
THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WON'T RULE OUT SOME IFR  
CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE IT IN TAFS.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-  
112-114.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GREIF  
SHORT TERM...HAL  
LONG TERM...GREIF  
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF  
 
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