370
FXUS63 KJKL 051737
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PERIODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ENVELOP EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME. DID
TOUCH UP GRIDS TO REFLECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
STILL EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA, BUT ALSO
AREAS OF FOG AROUND. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND
SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS CONTINUES TO BRING MAINLY LIGHT AND
BRIEF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH A DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER CHILLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST WHILE SOME UPPER 50S ARE
NOTED WITH SCANT SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE, AMID
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. DID ALSO
INCLUDE THE LATEST RADAR AND CAMS IDEAS FOR POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS, AND FOG EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREVAILING WEATHER INTO DAWN. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEPARTING
NORTHEAST INTO RLX'S CWA AT MID-AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE JKL CWA. SOME SMALL
HAIL HAS BEEN NOTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, GENERALLY COOLEST IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE CUMBERLAND AND AT LOCATIONS RECENTLY IMPACTED BY
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL, DAMP WEATHER IS AN
~552 DAM CUTOFF LOW SPINNING NEARLY OVER FRANKFORT, KY.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
WOBBLING BUT MOVING VERY LITTLE THROUGH 0Z TUESDAY. A POTENT 500H
VORTICITY MAX, WHICH WAS LIKELY THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THE STRONGER CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, IS DEPARTING INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
PARENT UPPER LOW. BEHIND THAT, A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND IS FAVORED TO BRING A TEMPORARY
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF US-23 LATER THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG, AND DRIZZLE
ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN AS THE COLDEST OF THE 925 MB AIR
MASS PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LATE IN THE NIGHT, ANOTHER STRONG 500H VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS FAVORED BY CAMS AND THE RAP13 TO
BRING A RISING SHOWER THREAT SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TOWARD/JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LINGER FOR
MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MAY FINALLY
START TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON MONDAY NIGHT. IF THAT IS THE CASE, THE
THREAT OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
WEST OF I-75.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO TAPER
OFF, LEAVING BEHIND A DAMP, CLOUDY NIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN SPOTS.
A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AND IN
FACT WILL YIELD TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
MORNING. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE
MID 40S. ON MONDAY, THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH A FEW OF THE DEEPEST VALLEYS WELL EAST OF THE
POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT COULD FLIRT WITH 60F. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND
SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THE
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MONDAY EVENING, BUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY RANGING IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WOBBLING OVER KY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SHIFTED TO A POSITION OVER OH BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. FROM THERE, IT WILL WEAKEN, OPEN, AND MOVE EAST AS IT GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BEFORE IT DEPARTS, THE LOW'S COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOSEST TO THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS AWAY.
AFTER DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MENTION OF RAIN ENTERS THE
FORECAST ALREADY ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM A
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND
RIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, AND ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF, WILL BRING PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT INTO KY ON WEDNESDAY,
AND A LOW POP IS BEING CARRIED (MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES)
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE HEELS OF THIS, THE TAIL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTHEAST
OVER KY ON THURSDAY AND SUPPORT AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, MODELS DO GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THESE FEATURES, AND A SMALL POP IS BEING CARRIED.
AFTER THIS POINT, THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT
MODELS RUNS, AND MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE TAIL OF
THE NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO ONE OR TWO
UPPER LOWS. HOW THIS EVOLVES WILL GREATLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER. WITH
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME, HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND AND
ALLOWED FOR A LOW POP AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY LOWERING OF CIGS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 08Z WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW, CLOSER TO 12Z/TUESDAY, CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
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