190
FXUS63 KJKL 051831
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PERIODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ENVELOP EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS AN OCCLUDING SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS ON
THE TAIL END OF A FRONT THAT'S MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A
THIRD FEATURE IS MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. LOCALLY, IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY, BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING LOW
ARE SPINNING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB TO A HIGH IN UPPER-50S TO A FEW LOWER-60S.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WITH IT
BUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SINCE THERE ARE POCKETS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE AND
MLCAPE ACROSS THE CWA; THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP IS RATHER LOW. ALSO, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED BUT DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS; INSTANCES OF HAIL/GRAUPEL WILL EXIST. ONCE INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE CWA AND LIFT IS NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND FAVOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD IS PROGGED START AS A WET AND STORMY
PERIOD BUT WILL FINISH ON THE DRY SIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER-50S TO
LOW-60S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID-40S. HIGHS
FOR TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER-60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER-40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WOBBLING OVER KY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SHIFTED TO A POSITION OVER OH BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. FROM THERE, IT WILL WEAKEN, OPEN, AND MOVE EAST AS IT GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BEFORE IT DEPARTS, THE LOW'S COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOSEST TO THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS AWAY.
AFTER DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MENTION OF RAIN ENTERS THE
FORECAST ALREADY ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM A
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND
RIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, AND ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF, WILL BRING PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT INTO KY ON WEDNESDAY,
AND A LOW POP IS BEING CARRIED (MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES)
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE HEELS OF THIS, THE TAIL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTHEAST
OVER KY ON THURSDAY AND SUPPORT AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, MODELS DO GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THESE FEATURES, AND A SMALL POP IS BEING CARRIED.
AFTER THIS POINT, THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT
MODELS RUNS, AND MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE TAIL OF
THE NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO ONE OR TWO
UPPER LOWS. HOW THIS EVOLVES WILL GREATLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER. WITH
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME, HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND AND
ALLOWED FOR A LOW POP AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY LOWERING OF CIGS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 08Z WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW, CLOSER TO 12Z/TUESDAY, CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
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