377  
FXUS63 KJKL 052114  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
514 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- THE PERIODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
- NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ENVELOP EASTERN  
KENTUCKY THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS AN OCCLUDING SURFACE  
LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE  
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS ON  
THE TAIL END OF A FRONT THAT'S MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A  
THIRD FEATURE IS MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN INTO THE  
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. LOCALLY, IN  
EASTERN KENTUCKY, BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING LOW  
ARE SPINNING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST TO  
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT  
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY  
CLIMB TO A HIGH IN UPPER-50S TO A FEW LOWER-60S.  
 
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE  
NORTHEAST, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WITH IT  
BUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS  
WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
SINCE THERE ARE POCKETS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE AND  
MLCAPE ACROSS THE CWA; THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BUT  
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP IS RATHER LOW. ALSO, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED BUT DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW FREEZING  
LEVELS; INSTANCES OF HAIL/GRAUPEL WILL EXIST. ONCE INSTABILITY IS  
EXHAUSTED, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
TUESDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE  
THE SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM  
THE CWA AND LIFT IS NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWER AND STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND FAVOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD IS PROGGED START AS A WET AND STORMY  
PERIOD BUT WILL FINISH ON THE DRY SIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER-50S TO  
LOW-60S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID-40S. HIGHS  
FOR TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE  
MID TO UPPER-60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO  
UPPER-40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 514 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025  
 
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON  
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO OUR  
SOUTH WILL BRING PRECIP THERE, BUT MODELS ARE NOT TAKING IT AS FAR  
NORTH AS KY, AND WE SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A DRY DAY. MEANWHILE, AN  
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HEADED  
FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. IT WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW  
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH KY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY  
EVENING. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY NOT RISING ABOVE THE 50S, BUT THIS SHOULD  
BE ENOUGH TO GIVE RISE TO INSTABILITY TO FUEL SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
AND ITS ASSOCIATED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT.  
 
AFTER THIS POINT, MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST. THE  
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER  
AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, BUT LONGSTANDING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS STILL LACKING.  
THE LATEST RUNS OF THOSE MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR OUR AREA  
FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE NBM STILL HAS PRECIP.  
HAVE CUT BACK ON THE POP OF THE NBM BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS, BUT  
HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP ENTIRELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025  
 
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL  
TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO  
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND  
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CIGS WILL  
BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY LOWERING OF CIGS IS  
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 08Z WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.  
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW, CLOSER TO 12Z/TUESDAY, CIGS ARE  
FORECAST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF  
THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VORST  
LONG TERM...HAL  
AVIATION...VORST  
 
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