147
FXUS63 KJKL 061213
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF VALLEY FOG - LOCALLY DENSE - WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM EDT.
- THE PERIODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD SWAY OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VALLEY FOG LINGERS THOUGH IT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS OF 8 AM EDT. THE FOG IS MOST PREVALENT
BETWEEN THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS OR A LINE FROM WHITLEY COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE ALSO FALLING FROM THE LOW
CLOUDS IN SOME LOCATIONS PER RADAR RETURNS IN THESE LOCATIONS NEARER
TO THE VA AND TN BORDERS. HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON
THESE SKY COVER, RADAR, AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS MAINLY
INCLUDED ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NEAR THE KY/TN/VA TRI
STATE AREA UP ALONG THE VA BORDER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES, LIKELY BY 10 AM EDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VALLEY FOG THAT QUICKLY BECAME LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AND ALSO ISSUED AN SPS. WITH THIS UPDATE ALSO
INCLUDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, SAFS, AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STACKED LOW STILL NEARBY TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT AND BRIEF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE. THE THUNDER CHANCES
HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH SUNSET AND EXPECT THE BULK OF THE REMAINING
SHOWERS TO DRY UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MEANWHILE, AMID
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOWER 50S NOTED. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS AND TO FINE TUNE THE POP CHANCES AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES,
HWO, AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS AN OCCLUDING SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS ON
THE TAIL END OF A FRONT THAT'S MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A
THIRD FEATURE IS MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. LOCALLY, IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY, BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING LOW
ARE SPINNING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB TO A HIGH IN UPPER-50S TO A FEW LOWER-60S.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WITH IT
BUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SINCE THERE ARE POCKETS OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE AND
MLCAPE ACROSS THE CWA; THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST BUT
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP IS RATHER LOW. ALSO, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED BUT DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS; INSTANCES OF HAIL/GRAUPEL WILL EXIST. ONCE INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED, SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE CWA AND LIFT IS NO LONGER SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND FAVOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD IS PROGGED START AS A WET AND STORMY
PERIOD BUT WILL FINISH ON THE DRY SIDE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER-50S TO
LOW-60S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID-40S. HIGHS
FOR TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER-60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER-40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BRING PRECIP THERE, BUT MODELS ARE NOT TAKING IT AS FAR
NORTH AS KY, AND WE SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A DRY DAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HEADED
FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. IT WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH KY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY NOT RISING ABOVE THE 50S, BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GIVE RISE TO INSTABILITY TO FUEL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT.
AFTER THIS POINT, MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BUT LONGSTANDING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS STILL LACKING.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THOSE MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR OUR AREA
FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE NBM STILL HAS PRECIP.
HAVE CUT BACK ON THE POP OF THE NBM BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS, BUT
HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP ENTIRELY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ONGOING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS WILL ERODE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING (13-14Z) WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND
5KTS. MVFR VISIBILITY (PATCHY FOG) LOOKS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUEST
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