524
FXUS63 KJKL 061935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE AND NOT AS
DENSE.
- THE PERIODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE
PA/OH BORDER WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ITS EAST
WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION TO THE DAKOTAS. A GENERAL
AREA OF TROUGHING EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN NM AND ANOTHER CENTERED IN NV.
FURTHER NORTH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEAR
THE ONTARIO AND MANITOBA BORDER WITH A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SFC, LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WAS TRACKING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NORTHERN FL BEFORE EXTENDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN TX.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY. FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF
EASTERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN KY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST
AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE KS
AND OK BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH, THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN CANADA SHOULD PROGRESS TO QUEBEC TO THE GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER LOW. LOCALLY, ONE OR MORE LEAD DISTURBANCES/
SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN KY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND REMAIN FROM TX EAST NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD NEAR THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KY
ONCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS WITH PW CLIMBING TO NEAR 1 INCH
ALONG THE TN BORDER PER THE 12Z HREF MEAN BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CANADA SHOULD MOVE INTO QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
LATE WED NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WAVY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC AND SAG TOWARD THE
OH RIVER AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER PW FROM THE 12Z HREF MEAN
WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 0.9 TO 1 INCH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE,
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MINOR TO
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A VALLEY INVERSION
DEVELOPING WITH PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO
3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ON RETURN FLOW
INTO THE SOUTH, A SHOWER OR PERHAPS THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE PER
SOME OF THE CAMS AND SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
AND SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR PERHAPS A STORM IN THE SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN
12Z HREF MEAN MUCAPE VALUES INCREASED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY UNDER RETURN FLOW AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BRING PRECIP THERE, BUT MODELS ARE NOT TAKING IT AS FAR
NORTH AS KY, AND WE SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A DRY DAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HEADED
FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. IT WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH KY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY NOT RISING ABOVE THE 50S, BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GIVE RISE TO INSTABILITY TO FUEL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT.
AFTER THIS POINT, MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BUT LONGSTANDING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS STILL LACKING.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THOSE MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY FOR OUR AREA
FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE NBM STILL HAS PRECIP.
HAVE CUT BACK ON THE POP OF THE NBM BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS, BUT
HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP ENTIRELY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CUMULUS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT CEILINGS WERE IN THE
VFR RANGE AT ISSUANCE TIME. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARD
00Z. AFTER ABOUT 04Z, VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
SEVERAL NON TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR IF
NOT LOCALLY LOWER. SOME FOG COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN
FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH KLOZ, KSME, AND KSJS
MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SOME MVFR REDUCTIONS COMPARED TO
KJKL AND KSYM PER GUIDANCE. ONCE ANY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BY
13Z TO 14Z, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TO END THE PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD 18Z, BUT THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO WEST SOUTH WEST THROUGH 23Z AT
10KT OR LESS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
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