695
FXUS63 KJKL 072209
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
609 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PERIODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES PEAKING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY, COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEPART FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES TO NORTHERN
PLAINS. A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PORTIONS OF QUEBEC TO THE
GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
WORKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WERE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS AR TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGING DEPARTS WITH PW RECENTLY ANALYZED FROM
NEAR 0.7 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KY TO NEAR 1.1 INCHES NEAR THE
TN BORDER. A MOISTURE GRADIENT AND SOME DENSER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT PRESENT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OCCURRING WITH IT.
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND INTERACT WITH THE
TROUGH OVER CANADA AS IT PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD
STILL REMAIN FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS TO MID ATLANTIC TO MID
MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND INTO EASTERN KY
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE OR TWO CROSSING THE AREA, CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PW PER THE 12Z HREF MEAN IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO THE 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MUCAPE INCREASES TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY, GUIDANCE HAS MLCAPE INCREASING
TO AROUND 700 TO 1500 J/KG WITH MUCAPE PEAKING IN ROUGHLY THE
900 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE PER 12Z HREF. BULKS HEAR SHOULD RANGE FROM
ROUGHLY 30KT NORTH TO 40KT SOUTH. GIVEN SOME RECOVERY FOLLOWING
MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 7 TO 8C/KM WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT LEAST NEARING 6.5C TO 7C/KM BEFORE INITIATION. SEVERAL CAMS
HAVE SOME UH SWATHS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
THOUGH THERE IS VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. 12Z HREF
PROBABILITIES ALSO WERE A MAXIMUM IN THE SOUTH. SPC HAS PLACED
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MARGINAL
RISK AS FAR NORTH AS NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. WIND MAY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH WITH SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 10KFT AGL OR LOWER PER 12Z
HREF MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN RATES AS WELL. MODELS DO ALSO VARY
WITH TIMING OF THE THREAT, WITH THE 18Z HRRR HAVING TRENDED A BIT
LATER. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY RECOVERY HAPPENS BEHIND
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AS WELL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ANY ROBUST CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IS LOW. THE POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND IN SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION, AND ESPECIALLY THUNDER, WILL DECREASE BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH, BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY NEAR OR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY, CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY,
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD TREK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES MIGHT BE FOUND OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY, BUT THEY WILL BE WANING AND ON
THE WAY OUT. SURFACE RIDGING SETTLING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SEND US A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR
CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS, WITH THE COLDEST VALLEYS POSSIBLY SLIPPING BELOW 40.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL FEATURE A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL GET PICKED UP AND
USHERED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAVE A PIECE
OF THE ORIGINAL UPPER TROUGH TO DROP TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, PINCHING OFF ANOTHER CLOSED LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
CUT OFF, OR NEARLY CUT OFF, FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW FROM
WHENCE IT ORIGINATED. THESE LOWS OFTEN HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO HANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF WHEN THEY
WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND GET ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW AND
MOVE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
NOT ONLY MODEL TO MODEL, BUT NOW ALSO RUN TO RUN. THAT BEING THE
CASE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND, BUT IS MOST FAVORED FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AT WHICH TIME LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. VFR WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KY, WITH A
FEW REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN. SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AS THESE CLOUDS SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH CHANCES
HIGHER BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z AND HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR KSME
AND KLOZ WHERE SOME PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE, WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, AN OVERALL TREND OF LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER, PREVAILING VFR IS ANTICIPATED
IN ALL AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP/ SPREAD INTO THE KLOZ AND KSME AREA SOUTH TO THE TN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z WITHIN AND AFTER CONVECTION. SOME MVFR FOG, IF
NOT LOCALLY IFR IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS, MAY ALSO DEVELOP
WHEN/WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS OR A THINNING OF MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND FOLLOWING CONVECTION DURING THE 06Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME. A
FEW REDUCTIONS WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THAT
TIME. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, WITH MVFR MORE PROBABLE TO LINGER
LATER NEAR KSME TO KLOZ SOUTH TO THE TN BORDER. SOME STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT KSME AND PERHAPS KLOZ
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH COVERAGE LIKELY PEAKING JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
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