140
FXUS63 KJKL 082052
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
452 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FORM MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EVENING, GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MTN
PKWY, WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CLEARING AND SOME RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY
THE SOUTH FOLLOWING MORNING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. RECENT MESOANALYSIS HAS MLCAPE NEAR 750 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY AND NEAR 1500 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. MUCAPE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANALYZED IN THE 6.5 TO 7C/KM
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY IN
THE 7 TO 8C/KM RANGE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
KT NEAR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY WITH 30 TO 40KT TO THE SOUTH.
THESE PARAMETERS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE SOUTH WITH HAIL LIKELY THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR A WIND THREAT AS WELL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 11 PM EDT, THOUGH GUIDANCE AND CAMS
GENERALLY INDICATE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING GENERALLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER. SOME THUNDER COULD LINGER NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS, SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWER CHANCES
DECREASE IN THE NORTH AND LINGER TO AROUND OR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG
ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWING ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GENERAL TREND OF RISING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
MIX OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MIX INTO CUMULUS BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARD
EVENING, WITH CLEARING FIRST IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
UNDER SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS TO LOWER
MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/WESTERN CONUS TO MID MS VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN TO SOUTHERN CONUS, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO OH VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THEN DEPART INTO THE MARITIMES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE WEST AND THE
POTENTIALLY NORTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX REGION.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY NEARING THE PLAINS
AT MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF NOT THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
FOLLOWING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
OCCURRED, THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH. A MIXTURE OF
MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WERE REPORTED AT ISSUANCE TIME. GENERALLY
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL DURING THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
WITHIN CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS, REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
AND IFR IF NOT BRIEFLY LOWER ARE ANTICIPATED. A GRADUAL LOWERING
OF CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR AND THEN IFR AND LOWER
RANGES IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE 00Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME WITHIN OR
FOLLOWING CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITY SHOULD LINGER IN THESE RANGES THROUGH
AROUND 12Z, BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST TO END THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE REDUCTIONS AFTER 00Z, WILL
BE DUE TO A MIXTURE OF STRATUS OR STRATOCU AND OR FOG FOLLOWING
PRECIPITATION. WITHIN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS, WIND GUSTS TO
30KT OR STRONGER AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE. OVERALL, OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY AREAWIDE AT 10KT OR LESS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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