983
FXUS63 KJKL 090213
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1013 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MANY LARGE HAIL REPORTS, THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOSTLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION OR OTHERWISE
STABILIZING. MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DIED OUT AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FINISHED. THE POP HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD YET FOR FORECAST INCLUSION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CLEARING AND SOME RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY
THE SOUTH FOLLOWING MORNING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. RECENT MESOANALYSIS HAS MLCAPE NEAR 750 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY AND NEAR 1500 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. MUCAPE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANALYZED IN THE 6.5 TO 7C/KM
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY IN
THE 7 TO 8C/KM RANGE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
KT NEAR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY WITH 30 TO 40KT TO THE SOUTH.
THESE PARAMETERS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE SOUTH WITH HAIL LIKELY THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR A WIND THREAT AS WELL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 11 PM EDT, THOUGH GUIDANCE AND CAMS
GENERALLY INDICATE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING GENERALLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER. SOME THUNDER COULD LINGER NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS, SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWER CHANCES
DECREASE IN THE NORTH AND LINGER TO AROUND OR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG
ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWING ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GENERAL TREND OF RISING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
MIX OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MIX INTO CUMULUS BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARD
EVENING, WITH CLEARING FIRST IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
UNDER SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS TO LOWER
MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/WESTERN CONUS TO MID MS VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN TO SOUTHERN CONUS, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO OH VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THEN DEPART INTO THE MARITIMES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE WEST AND THE
POTENTIALLY NORTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX REGION.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY NEARING THE PLAINS
AT MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF NOT THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
MOST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT, WITH MAINLY JUST A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FOG, CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP VERY SHORTLY LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, BASED ON OBS, NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL
HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
POOR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY
LINGER SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
ONCE LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD LAST INTO THE DAY THURSDAY
AND THEN BREAK UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
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