494
FXUS63 KJKL 091819
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH MIXING, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FORM NORTH TO SOUTH. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AN ENLONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES VICINITY, WITH THE AXIS OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAILING INTO WV TO THE TN VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC WEST OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ALSO EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE, A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT CROSSED THE REGION LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE VICINITY OF THE OZARKS. A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WAS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
HIGH HAS BEGUN TO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS OH AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN KY, WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE
PREVALENT FROM MUCH OF WV AND EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY INTO
PORTIONS OF TN. AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION,
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING, SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR TODAY BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
JUST A LITTLE REFRESH OF THE GRIDS TO CLEAN UP FROM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEXT
AND RADIO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CHANGES. GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MANY LARGE HAIL REPORTS, THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOSTLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION OR OTHERWISE
STABILIZING. MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE DIED OUT AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FINISHED. THE POP HAS BEEN LOWERED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD YET FOR FORECAST INCLUSION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CLEARING AND SOME RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY
THE SOUTH FOLLOWING MORNING CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. RECENT MESOANALYSIS HAS MLCAPE NEAR 750 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY AND NEAR 1500 OR HIGHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. MUCAPE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANALYZED IN THE 6.5 TO 7C/KM
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY IN
THE 7 TO 8C/KM RANGE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
KT NEAR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY WITH 30 TO 40KT TO THE SOUTH.
THESE PARAMETERS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE SOUTH WITH HAIL LIKELY THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR A WIND THREAT AS WELL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 11 PM EDT, THOUGH GUIDANCE AND CAMS
GENERALLY INDICATE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING GENERALLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER. SOME THUNDER COULD LINGER NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS, SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWER CHANCES
DECREASE IN THE NORTH AND LINGER TO AROUND OR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG
ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWING ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GENERAL TREND OF RISING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
MIX OUT AS A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MIX INTO CUMULUS BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARD
EVENING, WITH CLEARING FIRST IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
UNDER SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VALLEY FOG
FORMATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS TO LOWER
MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/WESTERN CONUS TO MID MS VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN TO SOUTHERN CONUS, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO OH VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THEN DEPART INTO THE MARITIMES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE WEST AND THE
POTENTIALLY NORTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX REGION.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY NEARING THE PLAINS
AT MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF NOT THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS IS
LEADING TO CLOUDS GRADUALLY MIXING OUT/CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. CLOUDS AS LOW AS THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE LINGERS IN SOME
AREAS NEAR KJKL TO KSJS TO NEAR KPBX. HOWEVER, CLOUDS BASES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH VFR EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS BY 20Z. MAINLY
VFR IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO
EXPERIENCE FOG WITH REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGES BETWEEN
ABOUT 05Z AND 13Z. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF THE NORTH AT LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH 00Z,
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SATURDAY, FROM AROUND 14Z ON, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10KT IS ANTICIPATED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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