007
FXUS63 KJKL 101413
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1013 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS FOR MOST LOCALES INTO SUN, THOUGH
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUN FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KY 80 TO HAL ROGERS PKWY CORRIDOR.
- SHOWERS/STORMS CHANCES LINGER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
FOG THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING IN A FEW OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
THE SOUTHEAST HAS LIFTED AND DISSIPATED PER SATELLITE AND WEBCAM
IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO STARTED TO WARM FROM RATHER CHILLY
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME VALLEYS GENERALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE MTN PKWY. DESPITE ANTICIPATED HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX
REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO DEPART.
ON WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION/INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH, SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN
AND VA BORDERS LATE TONIGHT PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS, WITH
THESE CHANCES AND EVEN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY TO HAL ROGERS PARKWAY TO KY 80
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
ARRIVES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT BOTH OBSERVATION
TRENDS TODAY AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCE TRENDS
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
OVERNIGHT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK, THUS
WARRANTING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A
STEEP TEMPERATURE DROPOFF IS UNDERWAY AS DEW POINTS DIPPED INTO
THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A
LITTLE FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS, ITS GOING TO BE A COOL
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. COOP MOS SUPPORTS A FEW MID 30S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL. MEANWHILE,
SOME OF THE WARMER THERMAL BELT RIDGETOPS AS WELL AS LOCALES NEAR
LAKE CUMBERLAND COULD STAY A TAD MILDER, GENERALLY SETTLING INTO
THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER PA WITH
THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONS TO CENTRAL CONUS/MID MS VALLEY VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE, NORTHERN WINDS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION LAST NIGHT WAS USHERING IN A COLDER
AND MORE NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANCHING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS CONTINUE
DISSIPATE/MIX OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE ONLY REMAINING
CUMULUS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST TO CAPE COD WITH A GENERAL TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE UPPER TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY AND MEANDER TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
TO QUEBEC TO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH A
BIT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND EAST TO VA AND CAROLINAS WHILE A COLD
FRONT RATHER DEVOID OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY AND WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME OF THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S GIVEN DEWPOINTS TRENDS THERE WITH
LOWS MORE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAR IN THE SOUTH
SOME VALLEY FOG, AT LEAST PATCHY IN NATURE SHOULD FORM FOR VALLEY
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A RETURN OF SOME CIRRUS NORTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH IS
ANTICIPATED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND THE WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING, AT LEAST A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IS FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING, VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WAS LEFT
OUT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
BAHAMAS INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE, GUIDANCE HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED IN LA/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY.
INITIALLY A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
QUEBEC AND ONTARIO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE VA COAST. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KY INITIALLY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE OH VALLEY/COMMONWEALTH FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER LA.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS PER GUIDANCE UP THE MS
VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT MID WEEK, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. RECENT GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MS VALLEY AND
THEN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED INTO WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THEN TO THE CENTRAL CONUS WED TO THU
MAY APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A SFC LOW CORRESPONDING TO THE UPPER LOW ALSO GRADUALLY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE MS VALLEY/GULF COAST AND INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT AS
THESE SYSTEMS PASS, IN GENERAL, CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD PEAK
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
LATE WED NIGHT TO THU COULD LEAD TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AROUND THU. THEN THE SFC SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY APPROACH TO END THE PERIOD WITH A WARM
FRONT POTENTIALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT TO EARLY
FRIDAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY
REGION.
OVERALL, AFTER MAINLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY, MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MORE UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY, BEFORE WARMING TOWARD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
FOR THE 12Z SET OF TAFS, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...WFO SGF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page