275
FXUS63 KJKL 101916
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
316 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS FOR MOST LOCALES INTO SUN, THOUGH
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUN FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KY 80 TO HAL ROGERS PKWY CORRIDOR.
- SHOWERS/STORMS CHANCES LINGER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER WEEKEND, BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL TO END
THE NEW WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
FOG THAT HAD BEEN LINGERING IN A FEW OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN
THE SOUTHEAST HAS LIFTED AND DISSIPATED PER SATELLITE AND WEBCAM
IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO STARTED TO WARM FROM RATHER CHILLY
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME VALLEYS GENERALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE MTN PKWY. DESPITE ANTICIPATED HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX
REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO DEPART.
ON WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION/INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH, SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TN
AND VA BORDERS LATE TONIGHT PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS, WITH
THESE CHANCES AND EVEN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER SPREADING AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY TO HAL ROGERS PARKWAY TO KY 80
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
ARRIVES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT BOTH OBSERVATION
TRENDS TODAY AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCE TRENDS
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER PA WITH
THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONS TO CENTRAL CONUS/MID MS VALLEY VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE, NORTHERN WINDS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION LAST NIGHT WAS USHERING IN A COLDER
AND MORE NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40S WITH
DEWPOINTS RANCHING THROUGH THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS CONTINUE
DISSIPATE/MIX OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE ONLY REMAINING
CUMULUS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEAST TO CAPE COD WITH A GENERAL TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE UPPER TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY AND MEANDER TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
TO QUEBEC TO NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH A
BIT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND EAST TO VA AND CAROLINAS WHILE A COLD
FRONT RATHER DEVOID OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY AND WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME OF THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S GIVEN DEWPOINTS TRENDS THERE WITH
LOWS MORE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAR IN THE SOUTH
SOME VALLEY FOG, AT LEAST PATCHY IN NATURE SHOULD FORM FOR VALLEY
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A RETURN OF SOME CIRRUS NORTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH IS
ANTICIPATED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND THE WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING, AT LEAST A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IS FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING, VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL WAS LEFT
OUT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
MODELS AND 00Z LREF MEAN ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE
PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. ALSO
AT THAT POINT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO NEAR TO WEST OF THE CA
COAST. IN BETWEEN, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE AN OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO BE CENTERED IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE GA/AL
BORDER.
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO NORTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF
THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE THE TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THIS POINT, GUIDANCE BEINGS TO
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AS WELL AS STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND 00Z LREF MEAN, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
EASTERN KY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.
MEANWHILE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT EAST TO THE
GULF TO SOUTHEAST TO OH VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. FURTHER WEST, THE AXIS OF THE NEXT LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, GUIDANCE HAS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE THE OH VALLEY AND
EASTERN KY FOR THU NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLY BROADENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES INCLUDING ANY
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES BY SATURDAY.
AS FOR SURFACE FEATURES, CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THE SFC LOW
TRACKING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, COMPARED TO FEATURES LATER IN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKELY MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATER THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS IS
PROBABLE. AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH EASTERN KY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING GRADUALLY INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THEN EAST OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MEAN PW PER THE 00Z LREF MEAN ARE
GENERALLY 1.1 TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES FOR MONDAY TO MIDWEEK, AND
GENERALLY HIGHEST ON MONDAY. FOR MONDAY, VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES
WOULD BE NEAR THE 90% PERCENTILE OR HIGHER, WITH 0 TO 6KM MEAN WINDS
PER THE 12Z GFS ON THE ORDER OF 15KT SO HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN
ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING FROM LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. BEFORE CHANCE TO LIKELY (30% TO 60% CHANGE)
POPS RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN TO END
THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY FRONTS AND DEGREE OF HEATING
AND INSTABILITY AT THOSE TIMES, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD (POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY) GIVEN THE 00Z LREF MEAN MUCAPE AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND CONSIDERING MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AS NOTED BY
SPC IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
LOW SIDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY IN
PARTICULAR AND THE POSSIBILITY AND TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DIURNALLY LIMITED MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH, AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY, WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THESE VALUES WOULD BE A BIT BELOW RECORDS, WHEN COMPARED
TO RECORD HIGHS OF 89 AND 87 AND 88 AND 89 AT JKL AND LOZ,
RESPECTIVELY, FOR THURSDAY THE 15TH AND FRIDAY THE 16TH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AVIATION
FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH PROVIDING VFR CIGS, AT TIMES. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL TONIGHT AND WELL AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS. ANY PCPN CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF ANY OF THE TAF
SITES AND THE BULK OF ANY TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THEN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
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