555
FXUS63 KJKL 110500
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
100 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS FOR MOST LOCALES TODAY, THOUGH THERE
ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF KY 80 TO HAL ROGERS PKWY CORRIDOR.
- SHOWERS/STORMS CHANCES LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED OFF A LITTLE FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WARRANTING A LOWERING OF THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50F FOR MANY PLACES, BUT SOME OF THOSE COLDER NORTHERN
HOLLOWS WILL SEE THE MID 40S. LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND
ON THE WARMEST THERMAL BELT RIDGES MAY ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, ARE LIFTING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT LARGELY DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS NEARER, A BIT
OF THIS LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH ACROSS THE BORDER AND INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ABUNDANT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCALES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE UNDER MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS
HOLDING TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WITH A FEW VALLEY SPOTS REPORTING READINGS IN THE 40S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THEY ALL
DEPICT A BLOCKY PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
TROUGHING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES (INITIALLY) WHILE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TROUGH IS HOLDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE
NORTHEAST TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ZIP TO EAST OF CAPE COD
THIS EVENING AS THE DEEP SOUTH TROUGH MEANDERS NORTHEAST IN ITS
WAKE. THIS PROCESS WILL SERVE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS INTO THE TROUGH
AS ITS CORE HOLDS IN PLACE JUST NEARBY ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT BODILY STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE JKL
CWA. WEAK ENERGY AT MID LEVELS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND CROSS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE RELATIVELY SMALL
MODEL SPREAD SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT WITH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THROUGH THE PERIOD - MAINLY TO INCLUDE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING BASED TERRAIN DISTINCTION IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME CAMS INFLUENCE FOR POPS AND THUNDER
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DRY AND COOL NIGHT UNDER MAINLY JUST
HIGH CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY SLIP NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BEFORE
SUNRISE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE JKL CWA WILL BE DRY. LOOK FOR A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THROUGH THE NIGHT -
MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THINNER
CLOUDS. THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON -
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. THE SOLID RAIN
CHANCES THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A SMALL THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM INTO MONDAY MORNING, AREA-WIDE.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADDING TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT -
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR POPS - ADDED SOME DETAILS
FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
MODELS AND 00Z LREF MEAN ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE
PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. ALSO
AT THAT POINT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO NEAR TO WEST OF THE CA
COAST. IN BETWEEN, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE AN OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO BE CENTERED IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE GA/AL
BORDER.
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO NORTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF
THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO MOVE/BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE THE TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THIS POINT, GUIDANCE BEINGS TO
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AS WELL AS STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND 00Z LREF MEAN, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
EASTERN KY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.
MEANWHILE THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT EAST TO THE
GULF TO SOUTHEAST TO OH VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. FURTHER WEST, THE AXIS OF THE NEXT LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, GUIDANCE HAS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE THE OH VALLEY AND
EASTERN KY FOR THU NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLY BROADENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES INCLUDING ANY
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES BY SATURDAY.
AS FOR SURFACE FEATURES, CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THE SFC LOW
TRACKING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, COMPARED TO FEATURES LATER IN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKELY MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATER THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS IS
PROBABLE. AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH EASTERN KY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING GRADUALLY INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THEN EAST OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MEAN PW PER THE 00Z LREF MEAN ARE
GENERALLY 1.1 TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES FOR MONDAY TO MIDWEEK, AND
GENERALLY HIGHEST ON MONDAY. FOR MONDAY, VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES
WOULD BE NEAR THE 90% PERCENTILE OR HIGHER, WITH 0 TO 6KM MEAN WINDS
PER THE 12Z GFS ON THE ORDER OF 15KT SO HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN
ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING FROM LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. BEFORE CHANCE TO LIKELY (30% TO 60% CHANGE)
POPS RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN TO END
THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY FRONTS AND DEGREE OF HEATING
AND INSTABILITY AT THOSE TIMES, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD (POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY) GIVEN THE 00Z LREF MEAN MUCAPE AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND CONSIDERING MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AS NOTED BY
SPC IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
LOW SIDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY IN
PARTICULAR AND THE POSSIBILITY AND TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DIURNALLY LIMITED MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH, AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY, WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THESE VALUES WOULD BE A BIT BELOW RECORDS, WHEN COMPARED
TO RECORD HIGHS OF 89 AND 87 AND 88 AND 89 AT JKL AND LOZ,
RESPECTIVELY, FOR THURSDAY THE 15TH AND FRIDAY THE 16TH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. A SLUGGISHLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GRADUAL THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS
WITH TIME. THE CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST NEAR THE TENNESSEE/
KENTUCKY BORDER. SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD APPROACH THE SME AND LOZ
TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHEAST/EAST AT AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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