120
FXUS63 KJKL 311828
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
228 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREA WITH TIME AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS, LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THOUGH THE TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR POISED TO RETURN FOR THE LATER PART
OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A STRONG
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH
WHOSE AXIS RESIDES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN FLOW LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL TEMPORARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTH INTO
TENNESSEE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WORSE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER SUNDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SUNDAY
RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER, SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER MODELS ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT VERIFY.
OTHERWISE, THE BIG STORY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
SUPPORTING CALM TO LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES, SO WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S QUICKLY AFTER DARK, WITH WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DEEP, CLOSED, STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC, AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE TO THE WEST, GENERALLY OVER THE PLAINS. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS IN QUESTION. THIS REGIME WILL BE BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN CONUS TO FINISH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING EASTERN KY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AID IN
BRINGING SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WERE TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE. THE GFS PAINTS THIS SCENARIO,
WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT AND ARE
DRIER. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN AND A MESSY UPPER TROUGH WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EASTWARD, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND PASS
OVER ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD ALSO LEAVE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER HERE BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT, ALSO AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIPS TO OUR EAST.
MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST AS
A SHORTWAVE AT MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW THIS TRANSPIRES, BUT ARE OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS,
THE FORECAST IS NOW DRY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS, THE FORECAST IS
STILL RATHER BROADBRUSHED DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONTAL
TIMING, WITH A MODEL BLEND SUGGESTING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN
TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ACT
TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WAS RELEGATED TO VCSH OR PROB30
GROUPS. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED AS PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT ANY ONE TERMINAL.
FOG IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KLOZ WITH REGARDS TO
POSSIBLE TERMINALS IMPACTED. THUS, ADDED LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.
HAVE LEFT ANY OTHER REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORIES OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES THAT FOG IS LIKELY.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ~22Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MAX GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS.
THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT IT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
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