298
FXUS63 KJKL 311853
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREA WITH TIME AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS, LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THOUGH THE TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR POISED TO RETURN FOR THE LATER PART
OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A STRONG
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH
WHOSE AXIS RESIDES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN FLOW LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL TEMPORARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTH INTO
TENNESSEE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING WORSE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER SUNDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SUNDAY
RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER, SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER MODELS ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT VERIFY.
OTHERWISE, THE BIG STORY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
SUPPORTING CALM TO LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES, SO WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S QUICKLY AFTER DARK, WITH WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH, A LARGE BUT MESSY WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH, AND AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN BETWEEN NEAR OR A LITTLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL CONTAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS IN ITS
BASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA.
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH DEPARTS, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS
TO OUR EAST. RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL GIVE US A WARMING TREND, AIDED BY
SUNSHINE IN THE STILL DRY AIR MASS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY, BUT IT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE OUR DRY WEATHER AND PLENTY
OF SUN, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MEANTIME, THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES. THE
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND THE EASTERNMOST SOUTHERN LOW WILL BE EJECTING
DOWNSTREAM IN THE FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE THE TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED AS IT EXTENDS FURTHER TO THE EAST, FLATTENING THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RIDGING. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER
SOUTHERN UPPER LOW ALSO EJECTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH, FURTHER FLATTENING
THE RIDGE . WITH SUCH A COMPLICATED AND MESSY PATTERN, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THOSE DETAILS IS NOT VERY HIGH. HOWEVER, ONE
THING IS CLEAR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THAT IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW KEEP THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ONLY TAKING IT TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER BY THEN. THIS MEANS A LATER ARRIVAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT POP FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENING AND
WEAKENING, THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING, AND IT'S
QUESTIONABLE WHEN, OR IF, IT WILL MAKE PASSAGE HERE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ACT
TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WAS RELEGATED TO VCSH OR PROB30
GROUPS. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED AS PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT ANY ONE TERMINAL.
FOG IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KLOZ WITH REGARDS TO
POSSIBLE TERMINALS IMPACTED. THUS, ADDED LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.
HAVE LEFT ANY OTHER REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORIES OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES THAT FOG IS LIKELY.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ~22Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MAX GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS.
THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT IT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
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