287
FXUS63 KJKL 011830
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR THE TN
BORDER.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY, BUT A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- THOUGH THE TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES ARE POISED TO RETURN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE KY-80 CORRIDOR IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH WHEN
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE FRONT AND WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AT
THAT TIME. JUDGING FROM THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KY MESONET AND
OTHER SOURCES, THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST SOME FIRING OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE KY-80 CORRIDOR AND THE TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
BY MID-EVENING AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST BECOMES MOSTLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO THE DEW POINT IN THE
VALLEYS, MEANING WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID-40S EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS BEGIN TO RISE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH OUR EASTERN VALLEYS MAY STILL REACH THE MID-40S TO
GO ALONG WITH MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG.
NOTE THAT DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THIS WILL BRING WITH IT
THE APPEARANCE OF MILKY WHITE HAZY SKIES AT TIMES. HOWEVER, IT WAS
FELT THAT VISIBILITY WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED, SO
ANY MENTION OF HAZE WAS KEPT OUT OF THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH, A LARGE BUT MESSY WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH, AND AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN BETWEEN NEAR OR A LITTLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL CONTAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS IN ITS
BASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA.
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH DEPARTS, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS
TO OUR EAST. RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL GIVE US A WARMING TREND, AIDED BY
SUNSHINE IN THE STILL DRY AIR MASS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY, BUT IT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE OUR DRY WEATHER AND PLENTY
OF SUN, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MEANTIME, THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES. THE
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND THE EASTERNMOST SOUTHERN LOW WILL BE EJECTING
DOWNSTREAM IN THE FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE THE TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED AS IT EXTENDS FURTHER TO THE EAST, FLATTENING THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RIDGING. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER
SOUTHERN UPPER LOW ALSO EJECTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH, FURTHER FLATTENING
THE RIDGE . WITH SUCH A COMPLICATED AND MESSY PATTERN, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THOSE DETAILS IS NOT VERY HIGH. HOWEVER, ONE
THING IS CLEAR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THAT IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW KEEP THE
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, ONLY TAKING IT TO NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER BY THEN. THIS MEANS A LATER ARRIVAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT POP FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENING AND
WEAKENING, THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING, AND IT'S
QUESTIONABLE WHEN, OR IF, IT WILL MAKE PASSAGE HERE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT KLOZ AND KSME, BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR
ALL TERMINALS AND THIS WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS, WHICH WILL LIKELY INCLUDE KSME AND KLOZ. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE
TERMINALS, WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDING ANY MENTION OF FOG AT
THIS TIME.
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
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